Brussels will not pull the trigger on a trade war yet – but the clock is ticking

Brussels knows the Bill faces rebellions against a weakened prime minister in the Commons

There is anger in Europe that Britain is looking to tear up a treaty that only came into force in 2021

The EU will not carry out its threat of a trade war when the Government brings forward its Bill to rip up the Northern Ireland Protocol today. But anyone thinking that the UK’S strong support for Ukraine has earned it softer treatment from the EU is deluded. There was optimism around Europe that “Britain was back” as it re-engaged diplomatically to urge a tough line on Moscow.

Global Britain was taking on an assertive, positive role in Europe for the first time since Brexit. Now, the Government will be accused of undermining the unity of the West in the face of Putin’s aggression by reneging on the Protocol.

Paris and Berlin are united in their belief that Britain, by breaking international law, as the EU sees the Bill, cannot be given fresh concessions.

It is true that the Baltic nations and Poland appreciate Boris Johnson’s leadership in the pushback against Putin. Gratitude for British weapons won’t convince Warsaw or Tallinn to defy the likes of Emmanuel Macron, despite their frustration with his approach to Moscow.

And no EU member state will countenance selling out Ireland, which feels the Bill puts its place in the Single Market at risk.

EU capitals have outsourced the Protocol negotiations to the European Commission. Maros Sefcovic, the EU’S negotiator, made what they see as a highly generous offer to the UK to cut many checks on the Irish Sea border in October.

EU governments are not minded to give their negotiator a fresh mandate as the UK has demanded as they don’t think Britain has engaged with the October proposals.

Brussels will hope the Bill is another manifestation of the “madman” or “King Kong” strategy – the belief that the way to get the EU to negotiate or make concessions is through threats.

Dublin is convinced the European Research Group (ERG) of MPS is now calling the shots on a Bill that is opposed across Europe and by most political parties in Northern Ireland.

The Bill has divided the Tory party and, apart from the ERG and the DUP, has little support otherwise. Sick and tired of the endless Brexit psychodrama, EU capitals see the Bill as yet another example of the Conservative party negotiating with itself rather than with Brussels.

But there is anxiety that Mr Johnson needs to shore up his support among hardline Brexiteers after the damaging vote of confidence in his leadership and may go beyond simple sabre-rattling.

There is genuine anger in Europe that Britain is looking to tear up a treaty that only came into force in 2021. Trust has been deeply damaged by the threat of unilateral action.

This sense of betrayal was palpable last year when UK threats to use Article 16 of the Protocol not only brought the risk of a trade war but even the cancellation of the hard-won trade deal itself – and the prospect of trading on no-deal World Trade Organisation terms.

The European Commission, which is responsible for trade policy for its members, has already drawn up a trade tariff hit-list of iconic British products made in Red Wall constituencies, and those represented by vocal Brexiteers, for when the time comes to retaliate.

But Brussels knows the Bill faces potential rebellions against a weakened prime minister in the Commons. The legislation is also likely to get a hostile reception in the Lords, which could further delay it.

The commission will calculate that its best immediate response to the incendiary Bill is a muted one.

Mr Sefcovic will probably say he “takes note” of the Bill and repeat his warning of severe consequences if it is ultimately passed.

He will stress that the best solution is a negotiated one with London, which the Government is at pains to say is also its preference.

There are landing zones for many of the outstanding issues with the Protocol. Deals are there to be done.

Perhaps both the EU and UK hope the deadline before the Bill becomes law will concentrate minds on striking them, despite the fact almost every Brexit deadline is invariably missed.

Brussels won’t pull the trigger on a trade war today, but, if the Bill is made law, it will respond.

Once the legislation is published, the clock, as Michel Barnier was fond of saying, is ticking.