GP exodus means 10,000 posts vacant within a decade

THE exodus of GPS could mean a quarter of posts will be vacant within a decade, analysis suggests.

The Health Foundation think tank called for urgent action as it published a forecast showing there could be thousands of vacancies across England. It found the current shortage of 4,200 full-time equivalent GPS in England is set to rise to 10,700 by 2030-31.

The analysts said this could mean more than one in four of the 37,800 general practitioner posts needed to deliver pre-pandemic standards of care would be vacant. Under a worse-case scenario, up to half of posts could be vacant and the projected shortfall could rise to more than 20,000.

The researchers warned shortages of GPS could pose a significant risk to quality of patient care. It is also estimated that there could be 6,400 nursing vacancies within GP surgeries by 2030-31.

The Health Foundation analysis suggested the Government is unlikely to reach its 2019 manifesto target of hiring 6,000 additional GPS by 2023-24.

While the overall number of GPS might be around 3,000 higher in 2023-24 than in 2018-19, it said the number of qualified permanent GPS is projected to have fallen by around 1,000, so any overall increase will be attributable to higher numbers of GP trainees and locums.

The analysis comes after a Royal College of General Practitioners survey found almost 19,000 family doctors plan to leave the NHS in the next five years due to retirement, stress and burnout.

Anita Charlesworth, from the Health Foundation, said: “England’s GP services are under huge pressure. It’s sobering that over the next decade things are set to get worse, not better.”

GPS are currently threatening to take industrial action over a contract that forces them to offer appointments at evenings and weekends.

In March, NHS England announced changes to the 2022-23 GP contract, saying family doctors need to make at least 25 per cent of appointments available for online booking while also extending opening hours.

However, medics at the British Medical Association’s annual conference in Brighton called on the union to “organise opposition” to the contract.