Fighting in Ukraine falls to ‘reduced tempo’ as soldiers bed in for a freezing winter

‘I think Putin is becoming more informed about the challenges that the Russian military faces’

THE conflict in Ukraine has fallen to a “reduced tempo” as both sides regroup ahead of a predicted counter-offensive by Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces in the spring, according to the US spy chief.

Avril Haines also said Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, had eliminated blind spots in intelligence which he had blamed for his early military failures.

Since they retreated from Kherson in southern Ukraine in November, Russian forces have dug in along the left bank of the Dnipro river, and the intensity of the battles has dropped. Both sides have instead focused on preparing for the freezing winter conditions.

“We’re seeing a kind of a reduced tempo already of the conflict,” Ms Haines told the Reagan National Defence Forum in California. “We expect that’s likely to be what we see in the coming months.”

The US has accused Russia of weaponising winter by bombing most of Ukraine’s power infrastructure in an attempt to undermine civilian morale, although Ms Haines said that the tactic would fail.

Her analysis matches independent commentators who have said that ordinary Ukrainians have hardened since Russia’s invasion in February and will be able to endure a freezing winter.

As for Mr Putin, Ms Haines said that he had been surprised by the failure of the Russian army to capture Kyiv in February and his military’s various weaknesses but that he had now improved his intelligence systems. These failures were blamed for convincing Mr Putin that Ukraine’s leadership would quickly collapse and its population would surrender.

“I do think he is becoming more informed of the challenges that the military faces but it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of just how challenged they are,” she said. “We see shortages of ammunition, of morale, supply issues, logistics, a whole series of concerns that they’re facing.”

Chased from battlefields, the Russian military has increasingly resorted to firing missiles at targets in Ukraine but Ms Haines said it had now fired so many it wasn’t capable of replacing them quickly enough. “That’s why you see them going to other countries effectively to try to get ammunition,” she said. “We’ve indicated that their precision munitions are running out much faster in many respects.” Reports over the weekend backed up Ms Haines’ analysis that the tempo of the fighting in Ukraine had dropped, with the exception of Bakhmut in Donetsk which has been almost completely destroyed.

The UK Ministry of Defence said that although the eastern Ukrainian town held little strategic value for Russia, conquering it had become a matter of prestige for the Kremlin.

“The campaign has been disproportionately costly,” said a Ministry of Defence spokesman.