Early general election ‘is worst kept secret’

PLANS for a May general election are “the worst kept secret in Parliament”, Labour has claimed, as the party talked up the prospect of a spring vote.

Emily Thornberry, the shadow attorney general, said that the Chancellor’s decision to hold the Budget at the beginning of March “seems to confirm” an election would come sooner than later. Her claim reflects Labour’s emerging strategy to ramp up speculation of an early election to take advantage of its poll lead.

Senior Tories sought to play down the prospects last night, however, urging the Prime Minister to delay any election until voters had benefited from the tax cuts expected in the Budget and a 2p National Insurance cut that takes effect in January 2024.

Ms Thornberry said that the decision to hold the Budget on March 6 – earlier than many in Westminster had expected – signalled an early poll, telling Sky News yesterday: “It’s the worst kept secret in Parliament that we are likely to be heading for a May election and this Budget date seems to confirm that.”

But former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan

Smith was among those dampening speculation. “I would not go in May,” he said. “You want the voters to feel things have changed. It would be better to go after the summer break when people are coming back from holiday and feel better about life.”

Another senior Conservative MP rubbished the suggestion, saying that party chiefs would have kicked them into campaign mode already if a May vote was on the cards.

“It is nonsense,” they said. “If there was a May election, we would already have been flooded with staff saying

have you got your photos and literature ready?”

Earlier in December, Rishi Sunak confirmed the next election would take place in 2024, ruling out a contest in January 2025, the latest date possible.

Labour, which has been enjoying a double-digit lead in the polls, has been calling for an immediate vote for months. Ms Thornberry said the country was “desperate” to get to the ballot box.

She said: “There was a time governments governed and made the right decisions for the sake of the country, and their first response was not what’s best for the Tory party, what red meat can we give our backbenchers to stop them rebelling, what can we do to embarrass the Labour Party?” she said.

“It’s about time we had a government that was prepared to govern.”

Labour is currently 18 points ahead of the Tories, according to Politico, with the parties on 43 and 25 per cent, respectively.

The Budget date was formally confirmed on Wednesday. The Treasury must give the Office for Budget Responsibility, which calculates headroom available to chancellors, 10 weeks’ notice.

For months No 10 and No 11 have pinpointed the fiscal event as a crunch point for tax cuts, with restless Tory MPS piling on the pressure as the burden approaches a 70-year high.

The Daily Telegraph reported this week that abolishing inheritance tax was one of the options under consideration, with three former Cabinet ministers on Thursday telling Mr Sunak that he must axe it altogether rather than “fiddle” with the rate. There is also interest in cutting the basic income tax rate and raising the higher rate threshold.

Mr Hunt chose to time his two percentage point cut in the overall rate of employee NI for Jan 6 2024 rather than April, more commonly the point at which tax changes come into effect at the start of the financial year.

The move was interpreted by some as an attempt to make sure the financial impact of the tax cut was felt in voters’ pockets at an earlier date, potentially leading to a lift for the Tories.

The Treasury may also have chosen to hold the Budget on March 6 in light of concerns that economic forecasts could worsen rather than improve in the interim. In particular, some involved in the timing decision feared that economic growth forecasts could be downgraded, leaving Mr Hunt with less money for tax cuts and other manoeuvres. Leaving less time between the Autumn Statement, which was held on Nov 22 2023, and the Budget minimises uncertainty as there is less time for forecasts to change.