March of EU’S hard-right will alter face of Brussels like never before

Geert Wilders, Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orban will lead their hard-right parties to victory in this year’s European Parliament elections, polls predict.

Their parties are expected to be the largest in the Netherlands, France, Italy and Hungary after the Eu-wide vote in June, seen as a battle to end its overreach into national sovereignty

Nationalist parties from Poland, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Slovakia and Cyprus are also expected to return the most, or equal most, MEPS to Brussels and Strasbourg.

More than a third of the predicted intake of MEPS after the election are predicted to be at the very least critical of bloc in a European Parliament long dominated by pro-eu groups. That would be up from about 25 per cent a decade ago, excluding the UK. Within that group, hard-right parties, firmly opposed to Brussels and often anti-migration, are predicted to make gains of up to 25 per cent.

Nigel Farage, who led Eurosceptic parties to victories in EU elections in 2014, a breakthrough year, and 2019, told The Daily Telegraph: “Ukip and the Brexit Party were ahead of their time. The populist surge that we are going to see in the European elections in spring will mark the beginning of the end of the EU in its current centralised form.”

Referring jokingly to the pan-eu alliances formed by like-minded parties, he added: “Gosh, I could have led a big group.”

Mr Orban, the Hungarian prime minister chose Judit Varga, his former minister of justice, to take the fight to Brussels after clashing with the EU over the rule of law and migration. Ms Varga says she will show the European voter there is an alternative. She said: “The voice of the sovereignist voters cannot be ignored. Change is needed. It is time to talk about reality and the people’s everyday life instead of listening to the lies and the denial of truth from the Brussels bureaucrats.

“If we do not make a change in June, in 50 years we will not recognise the Europe we know today. They will flood the Continent with migrants. They will betray the national minorities, the Christian roots of the founding fathers and erase the culture of consensus and unanimity.”

After Mr Wilders’ unexpected Dutch general election victory last November, Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy who leads a pan-eu alliance of hard-right parties, said: “A new Europe is possible.”

Soft or virulently Eurosceptic parties will be the largest, or joint largest, in 10 of the 27 EU member states, according to national polling analysed by Europe Elects. Half of all MEPS returned from France, Italy, Cyprus and Hungary are expected to be from a Eurosceptic party. There will still be a large majority of pro-eu MEPS, however, the increase in hard-right MEPS could have a real impact on EU legislation, especially if they vote with the influential and establishment centre-right. MEPS have the power to amend bills in negotiations with EU governments across the majority of European laws.

The hard-right parties are likely to ANAGRAMS join one of two Eurosceptic groups. If they form political groups they qualify for more EU funding and speaking time in debates.

The expected winners include Poland’s Law and Justice party, which was ousted in national elections last October by the pro-eu Donald Tusk. While it was the single largest party, after eight years in power it did not have enough support for a majority. However, it is set to win the European elections. Meanwhile, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang party, which is kept from power by a cordon sanitaire of establishment parties, is set to win in the EU’S own backyard. It is expected to gain five seats in the Chamber for Deputies, rising to 24 and making it the largest party. In Sweden, the Democrats are propping up a Rightwing coalition in Stockholm that has adopted anti-migrant policies to gain their support.

The other expected winners in June include Ms Le Pen’s National Rally, Ms Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Mr Orban’s Fidesz and Mr Wilders’ Freedom Party.

Mr Wilders is still attempting to form a national coalition but Ms Meloni and Mr Orban are already prime ministers, which grants them access to European Council summits.

Heads of state and government in the council give political direction to the European Commission and will decide on the next leaders of the major Brussels institutions after the election. Slovakia’s Robert Fico, a pro-russian Left-wing Eurosceptic nationalist, bolstered the hard-right in the influential council after winning elections last year.

Hard-right parties are also set for big gains in national elections in Austria, Lithuania, Croatia, Romania and Portugal. Last year the average proportion of national parliaments filled with hard-right parties hit its highest level since 2010 at about 14.3 per cent. Based on current polling, this will be exceeded this year.

In Austria, the hard-right freedom Party has led the polls for months. A five poll average has the pro-russian party at 31 per cent. In Portugal, Chega is polling at more than twice its vote share in the previous election at 16.4 per cent. The Alliance for the Union of Romanians is polling at 18 per cent, twice their 2020 vote share.

“If more populist parties gain momentum, there is a risk that EU countries will become more inward looking,” said Elizabeth Kuiper, associate director at the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels. “Clearly the mobilisation of voters expressing political discontent needs to be addressed,” she warned, adding that Brussels must prove it can solve social problems, including a fair transition to net zero. “Populist parties will present themselves as the saviours of the welfare state and turn their back on the EU,” she warned.

Josep Borrell, the EU’S foreign affairs chief, sees the elections as equally as “dangerous” as November’s US election if Donald Trump returns to the White House. “Parties that can play on fear in human beings and offer bad responses to good questions can attract the support from the European population,” Mr Borrell, a Spanish socialist and former European Parliament president, has said.