Small-boat crossings down but not over
Rishi Sunak has invested a great deal of his political capital in stopping small-boat crossings by would-be asylum seekers, so the latest official figures will have come as a welcome new year boost. They show the number of migrants crossing the Channel has fallen year-on-year for the first time since current records began. Total arrivals in 2023 were down by more than a third on the previous year at 29,437. This is 36 per cent lower than the record 45,774 crossings for the whole of 2022. However, they were still above the 2021 total and are clearly by no means over. Mr Sunak’s “Stop the Boats” promise was unequivocal, whereas a more nuanced policy might have made more political sense.
There are so many imponderables that an outright pledge to end the traffic is hard to achieve. Above all, the weather plays a key part. The Government has been encouraged that the last crossing was on Dec 16 when 55 people made the journey and the reduction was especially pronounced in the last quarter. But this was as much a function of bad weather in the Channel as the success of any specific policy. Furthermore, the reduction last year owed much to the agreement with Albania to put an effective end to the traffic from the Balkan state.
Nonetheless, the figures suggest that some of the initiatives are working and are bucking an upward trend seen elsewhere in Europe, reflecting the UK’S advantage as an island. Even though the Rwanda deportation policy has been stymied by the courts perhaps the very threat that it might eventually go ahead has had the deterrent effect intended.
Extra money to France to boost its policing of the beaches from where the boats are launched has helped to intercept some traffic. But these are criminal enterprises exploiting the desire of people who have often travelled thousands of miles to get to the UK and they will invariably find a way around the restrictions. One promise Mr Sunak claims he has achieved is to clear the so-called legacy asylum cases by processing a backlog of 92,000 in 2023, though around 4,500 “complex” cases remain. But more than two thirds of these have been accepted for asylum, which campaigners will say demonstrates that many arrivals are genuine and should not be detained or deported even if they have come directly from safe countries. Afghanis now make up the highest number.
The figures at least suggest that progress is being made, but there is a long way to go.