Channel crossings ‘to increase this year’ despite pledge
All asylum applicants since July face deportation but Sunak first has to get his plan through Commons
CHANNEL migrant crossings are projected to rise to about 35,000 this year despite Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” by the next election, according to leaked Border Force documents.
Officials have warned ministers that the 36 per cent fall in small boat crossings last year, from almost 46,000 to below 30,000, will not be replicated in 2024, with numbers likely to increase.
They believe a huge influx of migrants into mainland Europe last year will result in a significant number heading for the beaches of northern France to try to reach the UK on small boats. The assessment, leaked to The
Daily Telegraph, came as Mr Sunak’s official spokesman refused to set a deadline for stopping the boats despite James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, saying his target was to reduce crossings to zero this year.
The projections will increase pressure on Mr Sunak to get deportation flights to Rwanda going by spring to act as a deterrent to migrant crossings.
Border Force officials are believed to have based their projections on the assumption that no Rwanda flights take off or that numbers are so limited they have “no material deterrent effect”, according to a source.
Mr Sunak is facing demands from Right-wing Tory MPS for a tougher approach to block any legal challenges migrants may mount against the flights. But it would risk a potential backlash from centre-left backbenchers from the Conservatives’ One Nation caucus of more than 100 MPS if he does so later this month.
Home Office figures revealed yesterday that more than 33,000 migrants are liable to be deported to Rwanda, having arrived in the UK since new laws last July gave ministers powers to detain anyone entering illegally and remove them to the central African state.
Border Force’s 35,000 projection for 2024 is the medium-case estimate – deemed the most likely – and is contained in a scenario planning document. It is thought the upper projection is as high as 50,000 – above the record 45,774 crossings in 2022.
It also takes account of officials’ belief that EU measures to secure external borders are insufficient. The number of migrants entering Europe rose 80 per cent last year, and in Italy the number jumped from 105,000 to 155,000. “There is a lag between someone arriving into Italy and someone reaching the UK. It takes months to get from Italy to the UK,” said the source. “We have improved our cooperation with the French but they have not improved their interception to a level where they can stop all the people... The French have not improved their performance enough, and we haven’t got the Rwandan deterrent as yet.”
The medium-case projections of 65,000 and upper estimate of 80,000 for last year proved pessimistic, with 29,437 migrants said to have crossed.
A source close to Mr Cleverly said: “These are annual projections that, by dint of the hard work of the Government, Home Office officials and Border Force, and working in partnership arrangements with other countries, did not materialise last year.”
Yesterday, Mr Cleverly hailed the 36 per cent fall in crossings last year as a result of closer cooperation with France, a crackdown on Albanian migrants, and work with other European countries to intercept boats.
He said poor weather was not a “contributory factor” and that his “target is to reduce [crossing numbers] to zero, to stop the boats” in 2024.
Mr Sunak’s spokesman said the Prime Minister and Mr Cleverly were “united in wanting to stop the boats entirely” but, asked whether that could be achieved this year, he replied: “I’m not going to set out a deadline.”
‘Gimmicks instead of grip ...With a record of failure like that, Rishi Sunak should stop the … boasts’
MORE than 33,000 migrants face deportation to Rwanda if flights get off the ground, Home Office figures revealed yesterday.
Some 33,085 applications for asylum have been lodged since Rishi Sunak’s “Stop the Boats” legislation became an Act in July, giving ministers powers to detain any illegal migrants and deport them to a safe third country such as Rwanda.
It means that the asylum seekers are liable to have their applications declared “inadmissible” and face deportation to Rwanda where they will have to claim asylum.
The Prime Minister is attempting to secure the first deportation flights this spring if he can get his Rwanda Bill through the Commons, after the Supreme Court ruled that the policy was unlawful.
He faces threats of rebellion from both wings of his party over the controversial legislation – which seeks to further restrict the rights of migrants to mount legal challenges to their deportation and to address the concerns of the Supreme Court.
The Rwanda scheme is seen as critical in providing a deterrent to “stop the boats”. However, even if flights take off, ministers have acknowledged the numbers deported will initially be small.
In evidence to the Supreme Court, Sir James Eadie, the Government’s lawyer, told the judges it would be “limited” at the start.
The UK has so far committed at least £290million to the five-year Rwanda agreement. “Both participants recognise the need for capacity building: the UK has provided funds for the same, the Rwandan authorities have taken measures in terms of recruitment and training, and the numbers are, initially, low,” said Sir James.
Rwanda has established initial accommodation at Hope Hostel in Kigali with capacity for 200 migrants, although it is constructing houses and flats for asylum seekers and has previously said it can take as many as Britain sends.
The Refugee Council has estimated Rwanda has the capability to accept no more than 10,000 migrants a year once the scheme becomes fully operational, which it says would leave at least 25,000 a year in limbo.
The figures were revealed in data published by the Home Office following Mr Sunak’s claim to have achieved his pledge to clear the backlog of more than 90,000 “legacy” asylum cases which predate June 2022.
This claim is disputed by Labour and refugee charities who have pointed to 4,500 unresolved “complex” cases within the 91,000.
These have yet to be decided because the Government says there are outstanding security concerns, disputes over the age of the migrant or unresolved criminal issues.
The data also showed that there is still an outstanding backlog of 98,000 further asylum applications yet to be decided.
These come on top of the processed 91,000 and a further 20,000 submitted after June 2022 that have been cleared – a total of 112,000.
Yesterday James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, admitted it was “impossible” to say how long it would take to get through these outstanding asylum cases. “The point is that it’s impossible to say and I’m not going to make predictions,” he told the Today programme.
However, he said claims were being processed 10 times faster. “Last year we processed 112,000 cases, the largest in over 20 years, so again you know you can see the maths,” he said. The figures also showed that of the 112,000 “cleared” applications, there were 35,119 cases which were declared void, suspended or withdrawn, where asylum seekers failed to respond to interview call-ups or letters in the specified period and so saw claims rejected.
This has led to claims that the asylum seekers have gone “missing” or disappeared into the “black economy”.
The numbers of “withdrawn” cases have more than doubled in three years from 9 per cent of claims to a quarter.
Last month, top Home Office officials admitted to MPS on the home affairs committee that they did not know the whereabouts of 17,316 asylum applications whose cases had been withdrawn in the past year. They later corrected their admission by saying there were records of them enabling enforcement action.
Yesterday, Mr Cleverly told the BBC that withdrawn applicants who sought to hide in the black market would be tracked down, saying: “If they try to slip into the illicit economy for example, we significantly increase the raids on illegal working, so ultimately we find these people.”
The data also showed the number of illegal migrants removed from the UK has halved in the past seven years, from 40,000 in 2016 to 24,000 last year. This is despite a two-thirds increase in the voluntary and enforced returns in the past year.
Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “Returns of failed asylum seekers are down 50 per cent compared to the last Labour government. Only 5 per cent of Albanians who came on small boats to the UK have been returned. £400m on the failing Rwanda plan and no-one sent.”
“Gimmicks instead of grip. Failing to stop criminal gangs undermining border security, failing to clear backlog, end hotel use, implement returns or properly manage the asylum system. With a record of failure like that, Rishi Sunak should stop the… boasts.”