Reform has momentum – what is Nigel waiting for?
The pitch could not have been clearer. In pledging to “save Britain” from the Hobson’s choice of “socialist Sunak” or a full-blown “Starmageddon”, the bods behind Reform UK claim the Rightwing party is on the brink of a major political upset.
“If you want change, you’ve got to vote for it,” Richard Tice, the party’s smooth-talking leader, insisted at an eagerly-awaited press conference on Tuesday. “You cannot win the lottery unless you buy a ticket.”
Yet the conspicuous absence of Nigel Farage, Reform’s honorary president, poses a persistent problem for a party positioning itself as a Westminster game-changer. How on Earth can you mount a revolution without your disruptor-in-chief?
While Reform may already be nudging 10 per cent in the polls without the ultimate bad boy of Brexit at the helm, what is currently a fringe movement cannot feasibly become mainstream without Farage front and centre of its general election campaign.
Fresh from the I’m a Celebrity ... Get Me Out of Here! jungle, where he made it to the final three, the 59-year-old is said to be “still assessing” the “extent of the role he wants to play in helping Reform UK”.
There is not just his job presenting a popular GB News show to consider, but also this year’s US presidential election, when he will doubtless be planning a series of stateside appearances, both on stage alongside Donald Trump and on American TV.
And by his own admission, he is still bruised by the 2015 election, in “which I fought very hard for four million votes and one seat”.
Tice was forced to admit that Farage standing as an MP this year is “the least likely thing” that will happen, hinting instead at a more general, campaigning role.
Describing him as the “master of political timing”, Tice teased that a “good poker player doesn’t show their hand too early”, adding that the more Farage could offer the better, because the “job at hand is so big - to save Britain”.
Yet in keeping his cards too close to his chest for too long, Farage risks losing out on a potential winning streak. As he himself has said, distrust among Tory voters is at a level “not seen in modern times”.
The Conservatives are losing the confidence of the party faithful as Rishi Sunak struggles to get a grip on immigration and faces criticism for his high tax and spend policies. Yet momentum isn’t only building behind Reform, but also behind the notion of Farage as its leader.
Somewhat detoxified by his stint on ITV prime time, being de-banked by Coutts and with a social media following on platforms like Tiktok and Snapchat that extends beyond the Westminster bubble, Farage is a less divisive figure than he once was, having repositioned himself as a “man of the people” on his nightly GB News show.
While there will be many on the Left who continue to loathe him and everything he stands for, the collapse of Conservatism over the past three years has made Tories (and not just those who once voted for Ukip or the Brexit Party) see him as a viable alternative.
A Yougov survey recently showed that were Farage to return to frontline politics and take over from Tice, support for Reform would probably increase to 14 per cent. Among Tory 2019 voters, Farage’s favourability ratings are currently higher than Sunak’s.
Such is the interest in the controversial former MEP that Chris Mason, the BBC’S political editor, chose to attend the Reform press conference rather than a rival Liberal Democrat event in which Sir Ed Davey drove a poster van advertising “Ed Davey’s Tory Removals” through Guildford.
That was despite the Lib Dems polling at a superior 12 per cent (although some pollsters put the yellows behind Reform).
According to sources close to Farage, who turns 60 in April, he has been procrastinating over whether to return to the fray this year or wait for the Conservatives to “implode” first before riding to the rescue as the saviour of the Right – which arguably wouldn’t rule out a return to whatever is left of the Tories.
But if Farage delays, he runs the risk of losing his populist schtick by putting his personal ambitions ahead of the needs of a country that Reform has claimed is going to hell in a handcart.
He will also undermine Reform’s claim of being a viable alternative to the Tories and Labour. If Farage won’t put his money where his mouth is, why should the electorate?
Unlike in 2019, Tice has ruled out any pacts with Conservative MPS, even those who voted Leave, and has promised to stand candidates in every seat.
Regardless of fears that this will only strengthen Labour’s hand by splitting the Tory vote, if Reform ups its vote share (even if it doesn’t end up winning any actual seats in the Commons), Farage won’t be able to claim it as his own victory if he hasn’t been directly involved.
If he truly wants to trump the Tories, Westminster’s resident wild card has got to be in it to win it.
‘If Farage delays, he runs the risk of losing his populist schtick’