The Reform threat to the Conservatives
Not for the first time, the Conservative Party faces an insurgent challenge on the Right. Ten years ago the threat was posed by Ukip, which in 2014 reached 25 per cent in the opinion polls and had two seats in the Commons, albeit represented by turncoat Tories.
This time it is Reform in the ascendancy, with its standing now into double figures. At recent byelections, the vote for Reform was sufficient to cost the Tories two seats. As support grows, the chances increase that the Conservatives could lose scores of constituencies at a general election to Labour or the Lib Dems. The Tories could be in even bigger trouble if Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, returns as head of Reform. This is something he is contemplating, even if he did not turn up at a party press conference yesterday.
Richard Tice, the party leader, has said it will contest all constituencies in Britain at the general election and will not agree to step down in some seats, as Ukip did in 2015 in a small number of constituencies held by pro-leave MPS, on the understanding that there would be a referendum on the EU. Arguably that pact helped David Cameron win the election against expectations
Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson said Reform should be “careful what they wish for” as they will end up with a Labour government committed to more immigration, higher taxes and “net zero” green policies. But many Reform supporters are so disappointed in the current Government that they seem prepared to harm the Conservatives even if it does put Labour in office.
Reform claims that the Conservatives have little to show for 13 years in power and have squandered the opportunities provided by Brexit. Mr Tice said the economy was flat-lining, the tax burden is at a record high, immigration is greater than ever and the NHS is in permanent crisis. Mr Anderson’s counter-argument – that it will be worse under Labour – is not finding much traction among voters, not least because Sir Keir Starmer is being ultra-cautious by promising little that can be used by the Tories against him.
If there is one glimmer of light for the Tories, it is that many Reform voters are “small c” conservatives who have not warmed to Labour and whose votes can be won back if the Government can show progress, especially on immigration and taxation. Reform’s advance may look like a threat, but can be turned into an opportunity for Rishi Sunak if he is able to seize it.