Biden is surrendering the Middle East to Iran

The US has failed to deter Tehran’s Houthi proxies. That makes a wider conflict in the region more likely

Judging by the scale of the latest attacks against international shipping by Yemen’s Iranianbacked Houthis, the rebels are taking little notice of the warnings issued by a succession of Western leaders of the dire military consequences they could face.

In the past week, both Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron have warned the militants about continuing to target shipping in the Red Sea. Shapps said that Britain would “not hesitate to take necessary and proportionate action” against the Houthis, which form part of Tehran’s so-called “axis of resistance”, a motley collection of Islamist terror groups which includes Hamas and Hezbollah. His warning was echoed by Lord Cameron, who declared that “these attacks need to stop or actions will be taken”.

There has even been a declaration issued by 12 nations denouncing the “significant escalation” in attacks in recent weeks. “Let our message now be clear: we call for the immediate end of these illegal attacks and release of unlawfully detained vessels and crews,” read the statement supported by the US, Britain, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands and New Zealand.

Yet far from being deterred, the Houthis responded by launching their biggest assault to date. A total of 21 drones and missiles fired by the group on Tuesday night were shot down by US and British naval forces in the Red Sea which have been deployed to the region to protect cargoes passing through one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

Initially, the Houthis claimed they were only targeting shipping linked to Israel as part of their efforts to support their allies Hamas. But in recent weeks the attacks have expanded to include shipping destined for Europe and the US through the Suez Canal in a deliberate attempt to disrupt trade with countries deemed to be backing Israel.

Around 12 per cent of global trade passes through the canal, and the upsurge in Houthi attacks has prompted several major shipping companies to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope, causing lengthy delays and extra costs that could ultimately add to inflationary pressures.

Iran, which is widely suspected of providing the Houthis with the drones and sophisticated anti-ship missiles used in the strikes, has previously sought to pressure Western governments by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the key access point for energy supplies in the Gulf.

Now Tehran, which has called on its proxies in the region to target Israel in support of Hamas, is believed to be encouraging the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea to pressure Western governments to scale down their support for Israel.

The Houthis’ refusal, moreover, to heed warnings of reprisals has been encouraged by the patent lack of political will by Western leaders to authorise the robust military action needed to neutralise the threat.

Destroying the drone and missile sites used by the Houthis and their Iranian backers to hit shipping in the Red Sea would deny them the ability to carry out the attacks in the first place. Indeed, the Pentagon, working in conjunction with the British military and other allies, has drawn up a list of policy options for the Biden administration that would achieve this aim, enabling the resumption of normal shipping operations in the area.

Yet, just as happened in Ukraine, where US President Joe Biden’s approach has been dictated by his aversion to provoking Moscow, the White House has so far refused to approve airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. It is afraid of upsetting Tehran, and provoking a wider escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

Consequently, rather than authorising military action that would deter further Houthi attacks, Biden is seen in Tehran as a weak president who wants to avoid confrontation at all costs.

Nothing is better guaranteed to give succour to adversaries like Iran and their Houthi proxies than the failure to provide effective deterrence. This failing applies equally to Biden’s reluctance to tackle the Houthis’ threat in the Red Sea as with his constant undermining of Israel’s attempts to destroy Hamas in Gaza.

The main focus, for example, of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy mission to the region this week has been to limit the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations, not enhance its ability to defeat Hamas. A similar mindset was evident in Lord Cameron’s comment that Israeli forces may have broken international law, apparently overlooking the undisputed atrocities that Hamas terrorists committed against Israelis on October 7.

If the US and its allies are really serious about preventing an escalation in hostilities in the Middle East, their priority must be to establish an effective deterrence that persuades Iranian-backed proxies like the Houthis that their attempts to destabilise the region will never be tolerated.