A counter-strike in the Red Sea is needed but could make the situation even worse
The status quo is not working here – the Houthis are not deterred and shippers are not reassured
Since Oct 7 last year, the Iranianbacked Houthis of Yemen have fired more than 100 missiles and drones at ships in the southern Red Sea. A total of 84 per cent of their weapons have been destroyed by international warships before reaching their targets.
But the Houthis are not deterred. Every message of condemnation has been met with derision and another barrage of attacks, with the biggest yet coming on Jan 10. Fourteen Houthi drones and missiles were downed by US carrier fighters and destroyers: HMS Diamond accounted for seven.
It seems that political leaders have realised that this kind of attack cannot be handled purely defensively forever.
Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, warned the Houthis to “watch this space”, and it would now appear that counter strikes against them will take place. There was perhaps little chance that the Houthis would listen to the threats of Western military action, which have been telegraphed for weeks. In fact, they may see a Us-led series of strikes as beneficial, raising their profile as international actors and drawing more support to their cause.
With diplomacy having failed, it seems the Us-led coalition will now be forced to compel the Hothis to stop by conducting strikes to degrade their capability such that it no longer threatens navigation through the Bab al-mandab. These should be precision – not blanket – counter strikes.
Western military action should be carried out as an immediate response to Houthi attacks, knocking out missile launchers and radars as a defence against more attacks – self-defence carries more legitimacy than just busting the Houthis up, and that is key.
Such “one out, one in” strikes will degrade both the Houthis’ arsenal and their will to fight. Couple this with diplomatic efforts and there is a chance that freedom of navigation could be restored. Last night, the Houthis launched their 27th attack on commercial shipping since their campaign began – that would have been an opportunity to hit back.
The US has many options in the region which can deliver the necessary quick, precise strikes. It has large numbers of Tomahawk land attack missiles aboard its ships and submarines and an aircraft carrier full of strike jets just to the south of the Bab al-mandab.
When it comes to legitimacy, the other key factor is that the Americans will want someone shooting alongside them. But now we have another problem, and another reason why no strikes have happened so far. Who would the US allies be, and what would they use to join in?
HMS Diamond, sadly, has no land attack missiles. The only vessels in the Royal Navy which can fire Tomahawks are our attack submarines, but very few of these are up and running just now. The new Naval Strike Missile, which has a land attack capability, is being trialled aboard HMS Somerset, but this option may not be ready yet.
The only thing which could be done quickly would be a strike mission by RAF Typhoon fighters from Cyprus. This would be a 2,600-mile sortie with major overflight-permission and air-to-air fuelling complications.
An RAF friend of mine described it as “token air”. A harsher expression than I would have used, but there it is.
It also doesn’t work for striking back at something that just fired at shipping in the Red Sea: the Typhoons would not be able to loiter in the area waiting for their chance.
If they were called in as a response to an attack, the Houthi launchers would have vanished long before jets could get in from the Mediterranean.
A Tomahawk-armed sub or a British carrier off the coast with a decent complement of F-35B stealth jumpjets could do the job but those things are all in the UK. Of course it’s not just us, there are other countries that could assist, such as the French.
But given the difficulty that most nations have had in separating the “freedom of navigation” task from “US support for Israel”, this will be one to watch.
To sum up, the status quo isn’t working – the Houthis are not deterred and shippers are not reassured. Counter strike is not the solution but forms an essential part of it. Delivering it without making things worse will be as important as it is difficult.
‘There was perhaps little chance the Houthis would listen to the threats of Western action’