Hunt heads list of Cabinet big beasts whose seats are at risk

Fourteen top Tories face being ousted as gold-standard poll shows that a general election now would wreak carnage

JEREMY HUNT would be among 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats if Rishi Sunak went to the country now, the biggest opinion poll taken since 2019 has revealed.

Mr Hunt, whose current South West Surrey constituency will cease to exist because of boundary changes, would lose the new-look seat to the Liberal Democrats, the poll suggests. He would become the first Chancellor to lose their seat at an election but he would be joined by another 10 Cabinet ministers along with several Tory grandees including ex-leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith. In all, more than half the seats won under Boris Johnson in 2019 would be lost if the election was held now, according to Yougov.

Jeremy Hunt

He has said he will stand in the newly created constituency of Godalming and Ash after South West Surrey is dissolved under coming boundary changes. He currently has a majority of 8,817 but the Yougov poll predicts the new seat will go to the Lib Dems, with 35 per cent of the vote to Mr Hunt’s 32 per cent. In recent months there have been reports – denied by Mr Hunt – that he will stand down because he does not want to risk humiliation at the polls. Even without the boundary changes he was facing a battle, having seen his majority cut from 28,556 in 2015.

Penny Mordaunt

The Leader of the House and former Tory leadership candidate may have boosted her popularity among party members with her sturdy sword-carrying at the Coronation but that will not prevent her from losing to Labour, the poll predicts. The MP for Portsmouth North, who increased her majority to 15,780 in 2019, is projected to lose the seat, with 36 per cent of the votes going to Labour, 33 per cent to the Tories and a strong showing for Reform UK with 13 per cent. Without Reform, Ms Mordaunt would be likely to win. The seat is a swing seat, having been won by the outright victors in every general election since the 1970s.

Grant Shapps

The Defence Secretary has been the MP for Welwyn Hatfield since 2005 and, with a majority of 10,995, would normally expect to be safe. However, Yougov predicts he will lose to Labour, which will pull in 40 per cent of the vote to his 31 per cent. Even if Reform, polling at 8 per cent, pulled out he still could not win. With the Lib Dems attracting 10 per cent and the Greens on 9 per cent, there appears to be little scope for Mr Shapps to attract votes.

Victoria Prentis

The Attorney General’s Banbury seat has returned a Conservative MP at every election since 1922 but it is one of the Blue Wall seats the Tories would lose if an election was held now. Despite having a majority of 16,813, Ms Prentis is predicted to lose narrowly to Labour. Reform UK would be a decisive factor, drawing in 7 per cent, with Labour on 34.2 per cent and the Tories on 33.7. Labour’s margin of victory would be even greater if the 14 per cent of Lib Dem voters decided to vote tactically.

Gillian Keegan

The Education Secretary has the biggest majority of any Cabinet minister projected to lose. In 2019, Ms Keegan retained her seat with a 21,490 majority but the poll gives the Lib Dems victory with 33 per cent compared to the Tories’ 31 per cent. Once again, Reform UK, with 9 per cent, will make the difference. The last time the Lib Dems won Chichester was in 1923. They held it for just one year before the Tories won it back. It has never had a Labour MP.

Alex Chalk

Cheltenham has been a battleground for the Tories and the Lib Dems for decades and Mr Chalk would lose the latest skirmish if it took place now. The Justice Secretary has a majority of just 981 having won the seat from the Lib Dems in 2015. He is on course to be trounced by more than 12 percentage points. The Lib Dems are predicted to win 42.6 per cent of the votes, with just 30 per cent for the Tories. Only 5 per cent favour Reform meaning their role will not be decisive. Labour stands on 15 per cent.

Simon Hart

The Chief Whip does not have a majority to defend as his Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire seat has been abolished. He is predicted to lose the newly created Caerfyrddin seat for which he has been selected. Mr Hart took his current seat from Labour in 2010 and more than doubled his majority, to 7,745, in 2019. This time, he is forecast to attract just 27 per cent to Labour’s 40 per cent. Plaid Cymru is expected to come third with 15 per cent – around the same vote share as Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens combined.

Lucy Frazer

When the Culture Secretary’s South East Cambridgeshire seat is abolished she will stand in the new constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire, where she is predicted to lose to the Lib Dems. Ms Frazer had a majority of 11,490 over the Lib Dem in 2019 but the tables are expected to be turned this year. The Lib Dems are forecast to take 33.6 per cent of votes to the Conservatives’ 31 per cent, with Labour on 21 per cent. Reform UK, with 8 per cent, will again hold the balance of power.

David TC Davies

The Welsh Secretary is another whose constituency will cease to exist at the next election. He took his Monmouth seat from Labour in 2005 and has held it in four general elections since, winning with a 9,982 majority in 2019. Mr Davies will run for the new Monmouthshire seat but is forecast to lose heavily to Labour. The Yougov poll suggests Labour will take 41 per cent to 33 per cent for the Tories, with Reform on 8 per cent. Even if Reform did not stand, the Tories would not be guaranteed a win because of tactical Lib Dem voters.

Johnny Mercer

The Plymouth Moor View MP, who attends Cabinet as minister for veterans’ affairs, has a majority of 12,897 but is set to lose. Mr Mercer’s predicted vote share of 33 per cent is way short of the 40 per cent expected for Labour while Reform UK is expected to have one of its strongest showings in any Cabinet member’s seat with 11 per cent.

Alister Jack

The Scottish Secretary has announced that he will stand down at the election and, with a majority of just 1,805, his Dumfries and Galloway seat is a key SNP target. His successor, John Cooper, is expected to lose. Mr Jack’s 44 per cent in 2019 is expected to collapse to just 26 per cent, putting the Conservatives second. The seat has been a three-way marginal in recent elections, being won by the SNP in 2015 and Labour in 2010.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith

Sir Iain, a former Conservative Party leader, has held the Chingford and Wood Green seat and its predecessor, Chingford, since 1992, taking over from Norman Tebbit. His majority has been whittled down to 1,262, making him highly vulnerable, and Yougov predicts he will lose to Labour. Faiza Shaheen, his Labour opponent, is predicted to win with a landslide 50 per cent vote share to Sir Iain’s 31 per cent, with Reform, the Lib Dems and Greens taking between 4 and 6 per cent each.

Lee Anderson

The outspoken Conservative Party deputy chairman took his Red Wall seat from Labour’s Gloria De Piero in 2019 but it is expected to return to Labour this time. Mr Anderson is predicted to take just 23 per cent of the vote compared to almost 40 per cent last time, while Labour will take 38 per cent. The one unknown factor in the constituency is the role that will be played by the Ashfield Independents, a grouping that holds 32 of the 35 seats on Ashfield district council and came second in 2019 with 27 per cent of the vote.

Sir John Redwood

Few constituencies form such solid bricks in the Blue Wall as Wokingham, which has returned a Conservative MP at every election since 1885 (although it did not exist between 1918 and 1950). Sir John, a minister under both Margaret Thatcher and Sir John Major, has held the seat since 1987, winning in no fewer than nine general elections but, at the age of 72, his Commons career is expected to be brought to an end. The Yougov poll predicts that his 7,383 majority will be wiped out by a surge to the Lib Dems, who will gain 37 per cent of the vote to the Tories’ 31 per cent. Even without the influence of Reform UK, which is expected to pick up 6.5 per cent of the vote, Sir John would struggle to hold on.

Other senior Tories predicted to lose their seats include Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, whose Wycombe seat has been Conservative since 1951; Greg Hands, a former party chairman; Sir Robert Buckland, a former justice secretary; and Sir Simon Clarke, a former levelling up secretary.