Will it be 1997 again?

Our poll today confirms the parlous state of the Conservative Party after nearly 14 years in power and with an election to be held within the next 12 months. The Yougov survey of 14,000 voters – an unusually large sample size – suggests the Tories are heading for a defeat on a par with their disaster in 1997 when they were reduced to just 165 seats.

The poll points to a Labour majority of 120 in the Commons. For Sir Keir Starmer to be returned at the head of a party with 385 MPS would be the biggest electoral reversal for 100 years. It would mean Labour winning more than 180 additional seats on a swing not even achieved by Tony Blair.

Much will depend on what happens in Scotland where Labour looks likely to pick up at least 30 seats and whether tactical anti-tory voting further undermines the Conservative position. The potential boost to Reform if Nigel Farage returns to the helm will only add to Tory woes. While winning few, if any, seats of its own it could deny the Tories victory in almost 100 constituencies.

But all is not yet lost for the Tories. Any opinion poll is a snap-shot of how people are feeling at the time and the gap usually narrows in an election. We only need to look back as recently as 2017 when Theresa May was widely expected to win a landslide but ended without an overall majority and having to rely on DUP support to see how a poll lead can be lost in a campaign.

The Yougov findings are primarily driven by a collapse in the Conservative vote rather than a surge in Labour’s. It is critical, therefore, that Mr Sunak uses the coming year to win back his party’s traditional supporters with policies that matter to them.