Next two weeks will prove fatal for Desantis tilt

Ron Desantis claimed he got what he came for in Iowa after defying late polling predictions to claim second in the state. The Florida governor argued that the result proved he still belonged in the race to beat Donald Trump.

But the 45-year-old staked everything on Iowa’s Republican caucuses, and if he couldn’t win here, it is unlikely he can win anywhere.

Mr Desantis trails Mr Trump nationally by 50 points. He finds himself low on cash and with no path to victory in the next three states to vote. New Hampshire, where Nikki Haley is leading among its more moderate electorate, goes next.

Then comes Nevada, where the state GOP has tweaked the rules to favour the front runner, Mr Trump.

Next is South Carolina, home to Ms Haley, and where Mr Desantis is polling a distant third.

The Desantis campaign spent $34 million (£27 million) in adverts and knocked on close to a million doors in Iowa. Yet he trailed Mr Trump by 30 points and barely fended off Ms Haley, who only became a serious contender in the Midwestern state late last year.

Mr Desantis ran to the Right of Mr Trump, pushing a six-week abortion ban and other staunchly conservative positions at the cost of his chances in later-voting states. It was all in search of the evangelical voters who crowned Iowa’s victors in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

But two thirds of the Christian Right backed Mr Trump, who convinced 51 per cent of the state’s Republican voters to opt for him – more than Mr Desantis and Ms Haley combined.

When his political obituary is written, Mr Desantis may go down as one of the most underwhelming candidates in recent history. He could not have had a better start. He remade a critical purple state into a Republican utopia with a landslide 2022 reelection in Florida.

And he appeared to combine Mr Trump’s shrewd understanding of waging culture wars with a more traditional political pedigree, as a Navy veteran with an Ivy League education and a telegenic wife.

But he struggled to convert the early enthusiasm and a huge warchest into real support. His wooden public showings and staffing mismanagement take a portion of the blame.

Mr Desantis himself pointed the finger at the “Praetorian Guard of the conservative media” he claimed was shilling for Mr Trump.

It was a fundamental strategic blunder that cost him – he gambled on winning the “MAGA” base by out-trumping Mr Trump. But he found that replicating the former president’s success takes more than simply mimicking him.