Never underestimate the appeal of mayhem

Ayear ago, Ron Desantis was being touted as the next potential Republican president. He was Donald Trump without the “chaos”, as he put it. Deftly waging America’s culture wars without the dysfunction and drama. The self-styled “anti-woke” governor of Florida appeared to have a magic formula. His landslide re-election in Florida in 2022 turned the swing state into a red bastion. Replicating that nationally, his wealthy donors reasoned, could power him to the White House. They invested tens of millions of dollars in him.

He also had a powerful ally in America’s conservative media market. The Murdoch-owned Fox News gave him a regular billing, and the New York Post proclaimed him “Ron Defuture”.

But there was a fatal flaw. Mr Desantis had reckoned on a Republican Party that had tired of the criminally-indicted Mr Trump. It took just one state vote to shatter that illusion.

Iowa, a state where evangelical Christians decide the victor, was supposed to be where Mr Desantis delivered a body blow to Mr Trump. But the conservative Right, which had rejected the thrice-married Mr Trump in 2016, flocked to him. He won by more than all his rivals put together.

Mr Desantis had no remaining “path to victory”. He is polling in the single digits in the wealthier and more moderate New Hampshire, which votes tomorrow. Mr Trump holds a big lead in the next few states, and Mr Desantis’s backers have run out of cash.

With the benefit of hindsight, it could be said Mr Desantis’s presidential bid was over as soon as it started. A disastrous live social media launch with Elon Musk last May called into question the very essence of his appeal: to be Mr Trump without the mayhem.

In the months that followed, his bid hemorrhaged cash and senior staff.

Mr Desantis’s decision to quit the race before Mr Trump gains an insurmountable lead may be aimed at securing a position in a potential second Trump administration. All that stands in the way of Mr Trump gaining the nomination is Nikki Haley, his former UN ambassador, who is making her final stand in New Hampshire, but is heavily trailing the former president in national polls.

Like many candidates before him, Mr Desantis may well try again, in 2028.

His early withdrawal this time around can offer a number of lessons. The biggest is the reminder that personality matters more than policy.

Mr Desantis’s declining poll numbers have shown that the more time voters had to get to know him, the less they seemed to like him.