Europe is failing to step up on defence

Donald Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary virtually assures him of the party’s nomination as candidate for this year’s presidential election. He needs to overcome a number of legal hurdles before getting there, but assuming that he does not end up behind bars before November 5, a second term in the White House is now a distinct possibility, though by no means a certainty. Polls show that he is trailing Joe Biden in key battleground states like Pennsylvania.

Nonetheless, not only America but the rest of the world needs to prepare itself for another Trump presidency. This will matter more in Europe because of his ambivalence, even hostility, towards the Nato alliance.

In his first term, he was less isolationist than people were led to believe, but the Republican Party has, if anything, become more so in the meantime. Opposition to sending increased aid to Ukraine has grown. Without US help, the chances of pushing the Russians back are slim indeed.

When in the Oval Office, Mr Trump lambasted the reluctance of the Europeans to commit more of their own resources to their own defence. He was right about that and he was not alone in saying so.

European leaders like Emmanuel Macron have scorned Mr Trump’s rhetoric, but do not seem to draw the obvious lesson, which is that Europe needs to rely less on the US and spend more on its own defences.

The speech by the outgoing head of the Army, Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, stressing the need to “mobilise the nation’’ in the event of conflict with Russia, is the latest contribution to the drums of war sounding across the West. Downing Street has ruled out any move towards conscription, but it can hardly be ignored that our standing Army, at around 70,000, is too small.

A senior Nato military official also warned that citizens should prepare for an all-out war with Russia in the next 20 years, which would require wholesale change in their lives.

Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, has said the era of diverting military funds into a post-cold War “peace dividend” was over, though not enough extra money is being promised to bolster UK defences.

Of course, the whole point of Nato is that an attack on one member is an attack on all. But with Mr Trump back in the White House, the certainties that have governed our defence for 70 years would once more be in the balance.