Toyota trims EV forecasts as demand for hybrid booms

Slump in sales of electric vehicles vindicates company’s focus on petrol-electric models

TOYOTA has trimmed its sales forecast for fully electric cars amid a boom in demand for its petrol-electric hybrids.

The world’s biggest carmaker by sales said it now expects to have sold 120,000 battery-powered electric vehicles by the end of the financial year, down from a previous forecast of 123,000. That forecast itself was already significantly reduced last quarter, down from 202,000.

It came as Toyota slightly increased its forecast for hybrid vehicles from 3,868,000 to 3,875,000, out of a total 11,230,000 cars it expects to sell overall in the year to the end of March.

The numbers will be seen as a vindication of the company’s strategy, which has chosen to focus on hybrids – which are partially powered by petrol. The move was criticised but now appears to be paying off, with hybrid sales up at dealerships and sales of fully-electric vehicles down. Toyota is now predicting a net profit of 4.5trillion yen (£24bn) this financial year, up from an earlier prediction of 3.95trillion yen.

Yoichi Miyazaki, executive vice president at Toyota, said hybrid sales had even performed strongly in China, the world’s biggest market and producer of fully-electric cars. He added: “As a realistic solution, hybrids are still favoured by our customers.”

The company pioneered hybrid cars with the Prius model while Akio Toyoda, Toyota’s chairman, has publicly argued that electric cars should not be developed to the exclusion of other technologies. Last month, he claimed battery-powered vehicles will only ever capture one third of the market and said consumers, not governments, should choose which types of car they want.

He also pointed to other constraints on electric vehicles, such as the one billion people globally who live without electricity.

Nevertheless, Toyota has said it is aiming to sell 1.5m electric vehicles a year by 2026 and 3.5m by 2030.

The company’s latest results follow signs electric car sales in the UK and Europe slowed towards the end of 2023.

Overall, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said the UK market share of electric cars went into reverse last year, as consumers were put off by high prices and a lack of charging infrastructure.

Electric vehicles’ share of the overall new car market shrunk from 16.6pc in 2022 to 16.5pc in 2023. The latter compared with a 17.2pc share originally forecast by the SMMT.

The lobby group is now urging the Chancellor to boost demand by slashing VAT on electric car purchases for three years in the spring Budget on Mar 6.

Hybrids are powered by a mix of electricity and a petrol or diesel engine.

However, unlike battery EVS or plug-in hybrids, they use smaller batteries that can only power the car for short distances and recharge in the course of driving.

For example, a typical hybrid may be able to travel a couple of miles at maximum battery power, compared to up to 40 miles for plug-in hybrids and more than 400 for the most powerful EVS, according to the RAC.

Toyota’s Prius is one of the best-selling hybrids in the world, with a plug-in variant also available.

According to the SMMT, 238,942 hybrids were registered in the UK last year, an increase of 27pc compared to 2022. Over the same period, 362,129 “mild” hybrids were registered: 141,311 plug-in hybrids and 314,687 battery EVS.

Mild hybrids are not “hybrids in the traditional sense”, the RAC says, as they only rely on a small battery pack and starter-generator to help make small improvements in efficiency and boost acceleration.