Temperature rises top Paris accord’s 1.5C for first time

Figure is a reminder of the profound changes we’ve already made to our global climate, warn scientists

THE average 12-month global temperature has risen above the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5C for the first time, the EU’S climate change service has said.

Global temperatures averaged 1.52C above pre-industrial levels between February 2023 and January 2024, the Copernicus agency said.

A one-year rise does not mean a breach of the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep warming at less than 1.5C over a long-term average, understood to mean at least 20 years.

But scientists said it was a “significant milestone” that highlighted the shrinking gap to keep the 1.5C long-term target in reach.

“This does not mean we’ve breached the Paris global warming mark of 1.5°C – that refers to long-term warming, which is currently about 1.25°C,” said Prof Richard Betts, head of Climate Impacts Research, at the Met Office Hadley Centre.

“Nevertheless, it is yet another reminder of the profound changes we’ve already made to our global climate which we now need to adapt to, whilst urgently re-doubling our efforts to limit further heating of the planet.”

The temperature rise over the past year has been influenced by the El Niño, a regularly occurring global climate phenomenon that triggers warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said: “2024 starts with another record-breaking month – not only is it the warmest January on record but we have also just experienced a 12-month period of more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial reference period.

“Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing.”

Copernicus also found that the average surface air temperature in January of 13.14C was 0.70C above the 1991-2020 average.

January was the eighth month in a row to become the warmest on record for the respective month of the year, Copernicus said.

It followed 2023 becoming the hottest on record, with temperatures exceeding those of any period in at least the l ast 100,000 years. July 2023 was the hottest month on record, while Antarctic sea ice was also at an historic low.

“It is a significant milestone to see the global mean temperature for a 12-month period exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures for the first time,” said Dr Matt Patterson, postdoctoral research assistant in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford.

“Warm ocean temperatures related to the El Niño event in the tropical Pacific will have contributed to the warm global temperatures, but the primary cause is increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere from burning of fossil fuels.”

Climate scientists say the world is on track for around 2.9C of warming without further action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“It’s not the case that we are all safe for a temperature rise of 1.4C and doomed at 1.6C,” said Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, Chair of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London. But he added that the 1.5C breach was “a stark warning of the urgency for the action that is required to limit climate change at anything like the Paris targets.”

♦ French ski resorts cannot rely on snow machines and must do more to adapt to climate change, the country’s state auditor has warned.

French mountain officials have been left frustrated since the beginning of January because of the lack of snowfall. A report by France’s Cour des Comptes ( French Court of Auditors), which assessed the measures resorts are using to adjust to changing weather patterns, concluded that most are putting their head in the sand.

France remains the world’s second-largest ski destination behind the United States, with 320 winter sports resorts. But “weakened by the lack of snow and the erosion of their skiing clientele, more and more resorts are already no longer able to break even”, the report found.

Snow cannons provide “relative and transitory protection”, warn the auditors, adding that: “Investments are too often uncorrelated with climate forecasts, and the impact of snow production on water resources appears to be underestimated i n many areas.”