Farmers’ Brexit backlash could harm the Tories

Continental protests have been angrier – but Sunak underestimates the power of the rural vote at his peril

Farmers’ protests have been sweeping Europe for months. In Greece, they recently dumped chestnuts and apples on the pavement in Thessaloniki. They are angry that the Greek government hasn’t honoured a promise to compensate them for income lost following a spate of ruinous weather. Meanwhile, in Germany, farmers took to the streets after their government unveiled plans to phase out a tax break on agricultural diesel. Portugal, Poland, the Netherlands and France have also been hit by demonstrations.

Perhaps then it was only a matter of time before British farmers were inspired to join their Continental counterparts on the streets. For the time being, the protests seem pretty minor in comparison – a go-slow protest in Dover involving around 40 tractors is, in itself, unlikely to cause Rishi Sunak too many sleepless nights.

However, the Government would be foolish to underestimate the damage it could suffer if the rural protest movement swells, particularly given the nature of farmers’ concerns.

They are angry about cheap food imports and their revolt threatens to spiral into a very noisy and public Brexit backlash that could help crush whatever slim chance still exists of the Tories’ remaining in office.

A warning from organisers that the demonstrations could “very easily escalate” should be taken seriously by No10. The choice of Kent – a Brexit stronghold – as the protest battleground will not have gone unnoticed by Tory MPS already fearful about the prospects of a bloodbath at the ballot boxes in the coming general election.

That’s not to say Brexit is the only factor making farming increasingly unsustainable, according to some practitioners. Minette Batters, the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) president, said that years of “unsustainably high production costs and crop losses because of extreme weather” had put British farmers under pressure. Low supermarket prices, too, are a common complaint.

Nevertheless, the slogans that had been daubed across trailers and other machinery in Dover made it clear what many farmers are most angry about. “No more cheap imports” and “no to [New Zealand] lamb”, the signs said.

Meanwhile, farmer Jeffrey Gibson took to Facebook to remind people that his colleagues are also dismayed by the Government’s post-brexit sustainable farming incentive scheme, which hands out payments according to how much a farm gives back to the environment.

The programme has been attacked for being confusing and offering little-to-no incentive to farms to grow food, an own goal of pretty huge proportions given the weaknesses that were quickly exposed in the UK’S food system during the pandemic.

British farmers have expressed disquiet at being made to feel like they are no longer needed to produce food in the country, a situation that could have grave consequences not just for food security but the future of farming more widely as more and more give up a way of life that has been in some families for generations.

The Government maintains that it is firmly on the side of farmers. A press release, hurriedly assembled in response to the Dover stand-off, claimed it “firmly backs our farmers”. Ministers “are ensuring British farming is at the heart of British trade by putting agriculture at the forefront of any deals we negotiate”, it declared. Try telling that to those who complain about being unable to compete with the cheap food imports that have flooded the country after the Government rushed into several post-brexit free trade deals.

The free trade agreement with New Zealand was so favourable to the Kiwis that one television station ran a report highlighting how the deal did far more to benefit New Zealand’s agricultural sector than the British one. The National Farmers Union of Scotland has accused the UK Government of using agricultural interests and access to the food and drink sector during the negotiations as “cheap bargaining chips” to secure “more lucrative market access for other sectors”.

Some farmers regard the Australia trade pact to be even worse. The NFU’S Batters has described it as “a real breach of trust and confidence for farmers” after Boris Johnson’s zero-tariff, zero-quota deal signed away greater access to Britain’s beef markets than had ever been conceived by senior colleagues, including his then-international trade secretary Liz Truss. Dan Tehan, Australia’s chief negotiator, gleefully told Truss that Johnson had “conceded the whole kingdom”, according to one report.

The concerns expose the tension with which Sunak is now grappling. Many Brexiteers were dyed-in-thewool free traders sick of EU subsidies and distortions. Yet others undoubtedly voted to leave in the belief it would allow Britain to protect them from global markets which they believe threaten their way of life.

The Government must find a way to counter the sense of betrayal the latter now feel. The Tory party has long been able to count on the rural vote. The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats in England but a new poll suggests more than half are poised to switch support to Labour.

One suggestion from a group of influential MPS is for inheritance tax on farmland to be abolished where farmers have improved the natural landscape. That may not be enough, however. A campaign for higher prices isn’t the answer either. With consumers feeling squeezed there is no appetite to impose more costs on families.

The experience of France provides another wake-up call. French farmers have blocked major roads into Paris with this warning: “The goal is to starve Parisians. That’s it.”

The best way for Sunak to address the fractures emerging in the Brexit coalition would be to deliver economic growth. Even as food inflation abates, consumers will have no appetite to pay higher prices to appease farmers while they feel poorer. Alas, GDP figures set to be released this week are expected to show a country that has slipped into recession. It could be a decisive moment: without growth, the Prime Minister has few answers to anything.

‘Offering little incentive to grow food is a huge own goal, given the weaknesses exposed by the pandemic’