Rochdale should have been an easy win – now Labour’s fate rests with George Galloway

ROCHDALE should have been an easy contest for Labour. The party was 20 points ahead of the Conservatives in 2019. By-elections in safe Labour seats held since the Liz Truss debacle have on average witnessed an 11 point swing to Labour since 2019.

And yet, around three in 10 of the town’s population identify as Muslim. Muslims are particularly likely to be concerned about the fate of Palestinians in the Israel-gaza war. Labour MPS with significant Muslim populations have reported unhappiness about Sir Keir Starmer’s reluctance to call for a ceasefire.

Indeed, a recent poll of Muslim voters suggested that while 60 per cent were still minded to vote Labour, nevertheless support for the party was down 26 points since 2019.

Meanwhile, standing in the seat is George Galloway, a charismatic figure who has long been campaigner for Palestine. He has upset Labour’s apple cart twice before in constituencies in Tower Hamlets and Bradford with large Muslim populations. And now, following deeply critical and allegedly anti-semitic remarks he made about the actions of the Israeli government, Labour have disowned their candidate in Rochdale, Azhar Ali. Have they in so doing paved the way for George Galloway to secure another remarkable electoral success?

Mr Ali will still be on the ballot. The people of Rochdale can still vote for him and some undoubtedly will.

He is probably still the person who is best placed to deny Mr Galloway victory. The Conservative vote is likely to fall. True, the former Labour MP for the town, Simon Danczuk, who was stopped by the party from defending his seat in 2017, is standing for Reform.

However, it seems unlikely that backing a party that is critical of immigration will appeal to many Muslims. Past precedent indicates that candidates who lose the support of their party after the close of nominations do suffer at the ballot box.

However, their support does not collapse entirely. In 2019, Neale Hanvey was disowned by the SNP because of an allegedly anti-semitic remark when standing in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.

He was the only SNP candidate whose share of the vote fell.

However, at just one point, the drop did not stop him, with 35 per cent of the vote, from retaking the seat from Labour, whose own vote happened to fall even more. The Conservatives withdrew support from their candidate in Leeds North East in 2019, again for alleged anti-semitism. His support fell by seven points – one of the worst results for the party anywhere in England and Wales. Yet he still secured 24 per cent of the vote.

Meanwhile, the Muslim community in Rochdale is not as big as in Bradford West, which George Galloway won in a 2013 by-election. Over half the population there was Muslim. Rochdale is more akin to Batley & Spen (23 per cent Muslim) where, in a by-election in 2021, Mr Galloway secured a respectable 22 per cent, but was still 13 points behind Labour.

And yet. This is a by-election where the withdrawal of Labour’s support has inevitably been more high profile than it would be in a general election. And low turnouts abound in such contests – many Labour supporters may simply decide to stay at home. Meanwhile, disquiet about Gaza is far from being confined to Muslims. A Yougov poll earlier this week found that 44 per cent of Labour voters across Britain feel more sympathy for the Palestinian side than the Israeli one – 7 per cent take the opposite view. Much may depend on whether George Galloway can also win over non-muslim Labour supporters in Rochdale who are unhappy about the scenes from Gaza that we are seeing nightly on our television screens.

‘The withdrawal of Labour’s support has been more high profile than in a general election’

‘Much may depend on if George Galloway can also win over non-muslim Labour supporters’