A test for Labour

Two by-elections being held today in previously Conservative-held constituencies are expected to be won by the Labour Party. Its candidates are heavily favoured to win in both Wellingborough and Kingswood. Both would normally be considered Tory strongholds, but the Government’s recent record in even safer seats than these has been abysmal.

Matters may not be as clear-cut as they appeared a few days ago, however. The debacle over the selection and subsequent disavowal of Azhar Ali in Rochdale may persuade voters that Labour remains in thrall to hard-left anti-semitic elements. A close watch will also be kept on the performance of the Reform Party, which in two recent by-elections won enough votes to deny the Tories victory.

By-elections can never be seen as anything other than a snapshot of opinion at a particular time. Many governments have lost seats only to regain them at a general election and be returned to power. But with an election likely in the autumn, a continuous succession of defeats for the Tories saps morale and undermines the leadership’s efforts to rally the troops. The unknown factor suddenly thrown into the mix is whether Sir Keir Starmer’s efforts to detoxify Labour after the Corbyn years has been undone by the Rochdale fiasco.

Voters are entitled to ask whether his claim to have purged the party of its more extreme elements holds water. His vacillation over whether to retain Mr Ali as a candidate will not have gone unnoticed and feeds into the accusation that he will cynically abandon strongly held positions in the search for votes. Polls suggest Labour is losing support. Real voters can now show whether the party is still on course for power or if the worm has turned.