Ukraine still needs the West’s full support

This week sees the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the West’s belligerent rhetorical response to the aggressors belied by the reality of its commitment to the defenders. In 2022 it was imagined, not least in the Kremlin, that Russian forces would rapidly subjugate Ukraine and install a pro-moscow puppet regime in Kyiv. But Vladimir Putin reckoned without heroic Ukrainian resistance and assumed Nato would do little to help beyond ritual condemnation. The despot was emboldened by the experience of 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea, to believe the West would buckle.

But as military aid poured into Ukraine, the defenders were able to push Russia’s forces back to the eastern provinces they had largely held since 2014. A stalemate has developed, with sporadic gains for either side, most recently Russia’s capture of Avdiivka. This eastern city has been reduced to rubble and an estimated 17,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the assault.

President Joe Biden said the city has fallen because the Ukrainians lacked the hardware to defend it, largely because the US Congress is blocking further arms shipments. Although a £75billion foreign security bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan was passed by the Senate last week following months of negotiations, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives has so far refused to commit to bringing the bill to a vote, a requirement of its final passage. The president voiced his incredulity that the House had gone into a two-week recess at such a time.

At the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, Volodomyr Zelensky said this aid was essential to the war efforts and urged Nato to plug the gap in his defences. But that must mean more help from Europe, too. Donald Trump has made the failure of the Europeans to spend enough on their own defence a key campaign message ahead of the presidential elections. It is not just overall budgets that need to be addressed and it will take time to meet the target of at least 2 per cent of GDP.

Ukraine needs weaponry now and waiting for the Americans to cough up is not good enough.

The response among Nato leaders to the death of Alexei Navalny in a Siberian gulag has been robust, with warnings that President Putin will face dire consequences, including more unspecified sanctions. But the outrage will be meaningless if Russia is allowed to turn the tide in its war because the West let Ukraine down when it mattered.