School lockdown damage ‘may last generations’, says World Bank
COVID lockdown disruption to education will scar multiple generations, a World bank official has warned, with the children of people at school during the pandemic likely to have worse prospects than those born later.
Norbert Schady, chief economist for human development, said young children learned “nothing” on average during lockdown, including many who were unable to read basic sentences or solve simple equations.
These people will be less equipped to support the education of their own children when they grow up, creating an education gap that will persist into the next generation. Mr Schady told The Telegraph: “The scars from the pandemic, if unaddressed, are going to be carried forward for a long time.
“We know that people who have lower learning levels do worse in the labour market. There’s lots of evidence of that from countries rich and poor. And there’s even evidence that the children of these children may do worse.”
Mr Schady referred to an influential study of the 1918 influenza pandemic that showed children born within a year of the outbreak were less academic and had lower levels of income compared with those born after. The impact was still felt decades later in the 1960s.
Mr Schady said: “The children of the children affected by the pandemic actu- ally did worse. So I do think this is something to be seriously concerned about.”
The impact is likely to be long-lasting because parents with lower educational and professional achievements will be less able to support their children with home-working and into the world of work.
The World Bank has previously warned that today’s students could lose up to 10pc of their future earnings because of the impact of lockdown.
Mr Schady said lockdowns affected young children most severely. A report published by the World Bank last year showed the cognitive deficit in today’s toddlers means they could ultimately
earn 25pc less at peak than previous generations.
The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said lockdowns threaten to wipe at least £700bn off the global economy, warning that this could have a “persisting negative impact on the level of productivity over the next 30 to 40 years”. The Paris-based organisation blamed a deterioration in basic reading and writing skills among 15-year olds since 2018.
Most of the World Bank’s research is focused on developing economies. However, Mr Schady said technology and wealth made less of a difference when it came to education.
Citing ongoing research by the Bank, he said: “What we show on average is that while schools were closed, no learning at all occurred.
“So, if a school was closed for a year that means the child missed an entire year of schooling.
“Remote learning was on average very ineffective in most countries. And that includes some of the better-off countries.”
He added: “It’s less about whether or not you had an ipad. It is more about how long your schools were shut.”
Mr Schady urged policymakers to focus on teaching children the basic building blocks of reading, writing and arithmetic to close the learning gap.
Previous work by the Institute for Fiscal Studies has shown lockdowns damaged the emotional development of almost half of children.
The survey of 6,000 parents in England showed children appeared more worried, lost confidence more easily and were more prone to tantrums and low moods.