Mordaunt is Tories’ only hope, suggests poll
Majority of voters who backed party in 2019 see Leader of the Commons as a better bet than Sunak
‘Tory voters wanted income tax cuts to be the Budget top priority’ ‘The number who have switched to Labour is far short of what Keir Starmer needs to win an overall majority’
CONSERVATIVE voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a poll suggests.
Ms Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, was the only candidate backed by 2019 Tory voters to give the party a better chance of winning a fifth term if she replaced Rishi Sunak. But a majority of those planning to switch their support to Reform UK said ousting Mr Sunak and installing Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, would make an election win more likely.
The figures come in the wake of the double Conservative defeat in Thursday’s by-elections in Kingswood and
Wellingborough, while the party continues to trail Labour by around 20 points in the polls.
The survey of 1,500 people who voted Tory in 2019, conducted by Deltapoll and Helm Partners Ltd, a strategy consultancy, found that 38 per cent agreed with the statement that the party would have a better chance of winning the election with Ms Mordaunt as leader than Mr Sunak, while 31 per cent disagreed.
Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary and current bookmakers’ favourite to succeed Mr Sunak, was backed to improve the Tories’ electoral prospects by just 17 per cent of respondents, with a net score of minus 20.
Mrs Braverman had a net score of minus 29, although this rose to 43 per cent among those intending to back Reform, while Lord Cameron scored minus 10, Jeremy Hunt minus 20 and Liz Truss, the former prime minister, minus 69.
The polling also found that 2019 Tory voters wanted income tax cuts to be Mr
Hunt’s top priority at the Spring Budget next month – a policy backed by 64 per cent.
Increasing state spending was supported by 41 per cent, 36 per cent were in favour of further cuts to National Insurance and 32 per cent wanted Mr Hunt to cut inheritance tax.
The Deltapoll figures showed that 54 per cent planned to vote for the Tories again, with 14 per cent intending to switch to Labour and 13 per cent to Reform.
Sixty per cent of 2019 Conservative supporters said the Government had done a poor job since December that year, but two-thirds agreed that it had faced problems no other party would have handled any better.
Greg Cook, the associate senior counsel at Helm Partners, said: “Our poll starkly quantifies the fragmentation of the Conservatives’ winning coalition from 2019, which resulted in the collapse of their support in Kingswood and Wellingborough.
“But the number who have switched to Labour is far short of what Keir Starmer needs to win an overall majority, and Labour is relying on winning over more undecided votes and continued Tory losses to Reform.
“Sunak faces a dilemma – there is a clear strategy which might appeal to those Reform switchers, but it is so at odds with the mainstream view among the rest of the Tory coalition that its adoption is likely to lead to further losses to Labour, which would be much more damaging.”
It came as a separate Deltapoll survey showed that Mr Sunak’s approval rating has plummeted further, with the gap between him and Sir Keir Starmer, now the widest it has ever been.
The Prime Minister has a rating of minus 43, with 26 per cent of respondents saying he was doing well and 68 per cent saying he was doing badly, while Sir Keir recorded a net approval rating of minus two.
Mr Sunak faced a fresh by-election blow yesterday as Scott Benton, who lost the Tory whip after a lobbying scandal, lost his appeal against a proposed 35-day ban from the Commons.
His appeal was dismissed by the appeals panel and if the sanction is approved by MPS it will trigger a recall petition that would force a vote if signed by 10 per cent of constituents.
A by-election would be the 13th to take place since Mr Sunak took office.