Excess deaths were two-thirds lower last year than previously thought, ONS says

EXCESS deaths in Britain last year were two-thirds lower than previous estimates, new modelling from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) suggests.

The ONS announced yesterday that it was updating its figures to account for the growth and ageing of the population.

Originally the statistics body calcu- lated there were 31,442 excess deaths in Britain in 2023, but has now revised the figure down significantly to 10,994 – a drop of 65 per cent.

Last year, figures from the ONS showed that excess deaths were hitting levels not seen since the second Covid wave, with the eye-watering numbers blamed on record NHS waiting lists, strikes, and patients left untreated during the pandemic.

Although thousands more people died than expected, the revised data showed that most of the extra deaths occurred in the first six months of last year, with fewer than usual in the later months. Previously, figures were calculated based on how deaths compared to the five-year average, without taking into account population changes.

However, new figures are in contrast to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFOA) Continuous Mortality Investigation which puts the excess death numbers at 22,000, when including the ageing population.

The ONS said it was using a different baseline to the IFOA. Daniel Ayoubkhani, principal statistician for health at the ONS, said: “Using our new methodology, today’s release shows there were an estimated 11,000 excess deaths in 2023. This is lower than our previous estimate because our new method accounts for the growth and ageing of the population.

“Looking more closely at the last months of 2023, there were actually negative excess deaths, meaning fewer deaths than average being registered.”

Experts said the change was “long overdue” and warned that failing to take into account population changes had led to a “significant overestimation” of excess deaths.

Sir David Spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, warned there was no “correct” method for assessing excess deaths but said the changes were better than the “ad hoc” system in place until now.