Yes, Prime Minister got it right ... polls can manipulate the public

SIR HUMPHREY APPLEBY was right all along: polling can be manipulated to suit the political objectives of those who write the questions.

In a famous episode of the 1980s sitcom Yes, Prime Minister, the suave Whitehall mandarin explained how polling questions could be written to ensure the “right” answer was received.

The urbane civil servant, played by Nigel Hawthorne, said pollsters could use a series of leading questions to persuade the public to give contradictory answers on whether they supported the reintroduction of national service.

A major polling firm has proved that Sir Humphrey was correct. Ipsos asked the same leading questions to two groups. One came down in favour of national service and the other did not.

In the famous scene, broadcast in 1986, Sir Humphrey is horrified to hear the prime minister is planning to bring back national service after seeing polling showing it was popular.

He tells the prime minister’s principal private secretary to commission another poll showing the opposite, saying that this is possible because people do not want to appear stupid in front of those carrying out the surveys.

He said it would be possible to preface a question on national service with four or five other questions which would lead a person to come up with two different answers.

The pollster could then publish only the last answer and not the answers to the leading questions.

Ipsos asked the same questions used on Yes, Prime Minister – and found that one group was in favour of national service and one group was opposed.

Sample A was asked first: “Are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?”, to which most answered yes.

Then they were asked if they were worried about the rise in crime among teenagers, if there is a lack of discipline in comprehensive schools and if young people would welcome authority in their lives – all of which received a strong yes vote. Asked finally if they would be in favour of reintroducing national service in Britain, 45 per cent said yes and 38 per cent said no.

Sample B were asked different questions, beginning with: “Are you worried about the danger of war?” The next questions were about concerns over the growth of armaments in the world, whether there is a danger of giving young people guns and teaching them to kill and if it is wrong to force people to take up arms against their will.

When asked if they would oppose the reintroduction of national service, 48 per cent said yes and 34 per cent no.

Keiran Padley, a pollster at the firm, said: “What does it all mean? Well, obviously we wouldn’t ever do this poll for real, wording is too leading and there are rules about transparency of question wording and ordering.

“But it does show the importance of question wording, watching the detail and looking at more than just one poll when you want to understand what the public really think on an issue. Especially in an election year.”