Macron morphs from Putin pacifier to sabre rattler
“FRANCE has always stuck to one principle: we support Ukraine but are not waging war on Russia.” That was the Elysée’s stance on Sunday.
On Monday, however, Emmanuel Macron appeared to throw that principle to the wind when he announced – to the apparent surprise of 25 leaders gathered for a summit to support the war-torn country – that sending ground troops to Ukraine “must not be ruled out”.
Even for the transgressive French president, the change in tone was noticeable. His diplomatic advisers have got used to tearing their hair out at some of his off-the-cuff proposals, notably his ill-fated call for an international anti-terror coalition against Hamas, which promptly sank without trace. Was this carefully planned or another example of Mr Macron going off-script?
Either way, since the start of the conflict, the 46-year-old centrist has morphed from Putin pacifier to Europe’s sabre-rattler-in-chief.
With Ukraine on the back foot after Russian advances and America’s Congress in a stalemate over releasing $60billion (£47billion) of aid to Ukraine, Mr Macron is filling the void and taking the lead on Ukraine – at least in words. “This is a European war,” Mr Macron said, in a nod to the prospect of Donald Trump’s potential return to White House meaning an end to Washington’s support for Kyiv. “Should we delegate our future to the American voter? The answer is no, whatever their vote. We mustn’t wait to find out what the result is, we must decide now.”
Since Boris Johnson left No10, Britain has also toned down its aggression in the stand against Putin, although his successor Rishi Sunak was in the vanguard of the push to get Western fighter jets to Ukraine.
Little by little, Mr Macron has ratcheted up the rhetoric even if this has not, say critics, been matched by French arms deliveries. Paris this month pledged €3billion (£2.5billion) from France as part of a long-term security offer to Ukraine. In comparison, Germany has promised and delivered a total of €17.7billion while Britain has sent €6.5billion so far, according to the Kiel Institute.
Even so, Mr Macron has repeatedly shown he is not afraid to cross military red lines despite Russian warnings of dire consequences.
Last year, he was the first leader to send Western-made fighting vehicles to Kyiv: AMX-10 RCS, the wheeled combat vehicles with a mounted 105 mm cannon.
On Monday, he called for a coalition of Western allies prepared to send “tanks, planes and long-range missiles”.
A source close to the matter put it bluntly: “The aim [of Mr Macron’s plans] is to send a strong strategic signal to the Russians to say: ‘Don’t do anything stupid’.”
Jean-pierre Maulny, the deputy director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (Iris), sees his “strategic ambiguity” as above all one of deterrence. Talk of ground troops was an attempt to “show that we are united and robust” and to send a message to Moscow that beyond supplying arms, “the next step is to go on the ground, and you have no chance of winning”.
Mr Macron’s go-it-alone approach has caught several allies short, including Britain, which said it had no plans to dispatch soldiers to support Kyiv. Nato’s head said likewise.
The most irked of all has been France’s traditionally close European partner Germany, with whom relations have plunged to record lows over the past year. Opposites in almost every way, Mr Macron and Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, have tried and failed to hit it off – even a “fish and beer” weekend last year failed to bridge the gap.
Long a sleeping giant, Germany has re-awakened its military ambitions since the Ukraine invasion and refuses to follow France’s lead, putting Gallic noses out of joint.
On the other hand, Scholz’s cautious approach is a source of equal frustration to the thrusting Mr Macron who made it clear his job is to move the goalposts while others – namely Germany – dither.
Mr Macron has form in lobbing a rhetorical grenade in an effort to shake up the status quo. He famously pronounced Nato “brain dead” in remarks supporters insist were ultimately salutary.
“Let’s have the humility to recognise that we have often been six to 12 months behind schedule. That was the aim of tonight’s discussion: anything is possible if it helps us achieve our goal,” he said. Given the almost blanket rejection of his suggestion, Mr Macron may find himself once again in splendid isolation.