Germany is endangering European security
Berlin had a chance to show true leadership over Ukraine. It’s blown it, and Putin will be delighted
‘We will not go it alone. Germany will not act differently from other countries,” chancellor Olaf Scholz promised in April 2022. It’s become a mantra, deployed whenever Berlin is asked to do more to support Ukraine against Russia’s brutal invasion. Unfortunately, it no longer appears to be true. Germany looks increasingly isolated, with its domestic divisions, careless communication and tensions with its closest allies a far cry from the robust leadership we were promised.
Scholz’s latest breach of trust came on Monday. Keen to bat away internal opposition, he discussed British and French aid to Ukraine in terms that implied they were active participants in the war. Explaining his own reluctance to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles while Britain and France have sent comparable Storm Shadow and Scalp systems respectively, he said: “What is being done in the way of target control and accompanying target control on the part of the British and the French can’t be done in Germany.”
The fact that Britain aids Ukraine with intelligence on targets isn’t new, but Scholz’s open discussion of the matter did nothing for the veiled ambiguity in which such interventions are deliberately shrouded – “a gift to Russian propagandists”, as one intelligence expert put it. A senior Tory MP was stronger still, describing the chancellor’s comments as “a flagrant abuse of intelligence deliberately designed to distract from Germany’s reluctance to arm Ukraine with its own long-range missile system”.
Germany is increasingly out of step with another of its allies, too: France. In a jarring contradiction to Germany’s guiding principle in Ukraine – avoiding direct conflict with Russia – French president Emmanuel Macron told reporters after a summit of European leaders in Paris that there was “no consensus today to send ground troops officially but ... nothing is ruled out”. Scholz had said the precise opposite shortly before. While several other Nato countries, including the UK and the US, also rejected Macron’s remarks, the disunity between Berlin and Paris, usually so keen to stress how crucial their partnership is for peace in Europe, will have been noted in Moscow.
A large part of the problem for Germany’s allies are the severe splits within the country’s ruling coalition. These have again come to the fore in an emerging debate over whether the country should acquire nuclear weapons or there should be a common European deterrent, sparked over concerns about the reliability of Europe’s partnership with the United States should Donald Trump return to the White House.
The debate was largely started by a member of Scholz’s own Social Democratic Party (SPD), whose lead candidate for the European elections in the summer, Katarina Barley, wants the option on the table. Her colleague Ralf Stegner, however, has called the idea “extremely dangerous and irresponsible”.
Such internal rifts within the chancellor’s own party mean that allies rightly worry they can’t rely on a clear stance from Germany while war is raging in Europe. And it’s just the tip of an iceberg of domestic division as anti-establishment parties tear chunks out of the ruling coalition. The three parties in Scholz’s coalition would now only gain around a third of the vote combined. Meanwhile, the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) and a new party under the direction of Left-winger Sahra Wagenknecht both advocate negotiations with Russia. The survival of his fragile coalition is a priority for Scholz over security policy.
This lack of German leadership is a tragedy for Ukraine and for the West. When Scholz promised that Russia’s illegal invasion would be a Zeitenwende, a turning point for Germany, there was an opportunity for the country to step out of its post-war shadow and assume more responsibility for Western security. This could have had an immensely stabilising effect, underpinned by the country’s economic might and geostrategic position.
As it stands, Germany may be the second biggest contributor of military aid to Ukraine after the US, but it can no longer credibly claim to offering any form of leadership. That Germany is struggling to set its own house in order, leaving it neither the will nor the authority to lead on European security, is clear for all to see, including Vladimir Putin.