How ex-president secured GOP primaries before votes opened
REPUBLICANS are difficult to find in San Francisco, the United States’ most liberal city. They make up 12 per cent of voters and many keep their politics hidden to avoid the ire of Democrats.
But as California joins 14 other states in Super Tuesday primary elections this week, they play a major role in Donald Trump’s re-election campaign.
His success in the national primary race is partly because of his grasp on Republican Party apparatus – so firm it has led to accusations of vote-rigging.
In Michigan and Nevada, the rules were changed last year to make it more likely that Mr Trump would receive the most delegates. The same is true in California, where his supporters have turned the primary into a winnertakes-all contest.
The sheer size of the Golden State’s population means that even though Republicans are vastly outnumbered by Democrats, they have a greater bearing on the GOP result than any other voters.
Today, the state’s 169 Republican delegates will be the biggest prize of the night. And all are set to go to Mr Trump in his biggest victory yet.
Since the beginning of the primaries on Jan 15, he has lost only one vote, in Washington DC, and has sometimes won states by 20 points or more.
The latest California polling found Mr Trump is likely to sweep up three-quarters of Republicans, while Nikki Haley, his only remaining opponent, will secure only 15 per cent.
Mark Dicamillo, a veteran pollster who conducted the research, describes Mr Trump’s dominance of the race as “overwhelming”.
“He has continued to go up in every successive poll we’ve done this year. He was at 66 per cent six weeks ago. He’s now at 75 per cent,” he said.
Mr Trump’s nomination, which looked far from certain nine months ago, is now effectively guaranteed.
With the result in California today, plus expected victories in big states like Texas and Virginia, he could declare victory as early as mid-march, months before primary contests are usually settled.
“Republicans in California share a lot of the same concerns and issue priorities as Republicans nationwide, even though they’re a much smaller share of the state’s voters,” Mr
Dicamillo said. “They’re very much behind Trump.”
This is clear from speaking to GOP members who quietly support Mr Trump but are less vocal than “Maga” Republicans in other states.
Previously, California’s results were highly localised to reflect its size and diversity, allowing a candidate to win only one district and still walk away with delegates at the Republican National Convention in July.
Now, after a campaign by Trump supporters at state level, any candidate who wins more than 50 per cent of the statewide vote will secure all delegates. The decision infuriated Mr Trump’s opponents and effectively sank Ms Haley’s bid before it began.
Mike Madrid, a GOP consultant and the former political director of the California Republican Party, said that “Trump people” had “railroaded” the changes through in September to ensure their candidate would receive the maximum number of delegates.
“This was done with the full imprimatur and blessing of the Trump people. It’s a complete power play to dominate the party,” he said, adding that the old system was instituted years ago by grassroots organisers to prevent the “establishment” Republicans from controlling who would be the nominee.
“This has had the effect of doing the exact opposite. It prevents Haley and other candidates from being competitive. It’s allowed for complete dominance of Donald Trump.”
Such is Mr Trump’s sway over Californian politics that a separate November election for a new senator has also become a referendum on his presidential campaign.
Steve Garvey, a GOP contender for the seat, has received much of his support because he is considered the most pro-trump candidate, while on the other side Adam Schiff won the backing of his party for working on the impeachment of Mr Trump during his presidency.
“They’re not asking questions about abortion or climate change or gun control or economics,” said Mr Madrid. “All they care about is who is the most anti-trump, and if Trump doesn’t like you the most, you get the nomination.”
As Mr Trump’s supporters set about remaking the state party in his image, he himself dialled up his attacks on California’s liberal politicians.
He told the state Republican convention last year: “While California was once a symbol of American success, today, under the radical left fascists and Marxists that run your state it’s becoming a symbol of our nation’s decline.”
On the ground, his campaign appears to be working among Republicans and Democrats alike.
California has voted for a Democrat president in every election since 1992, and since Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, the margin of victory has never been less than 20 per cent.
In 2020, Joe Biden beat Mr Trump by five million votes. However, the results of the latest UC Berkeley poll find that in head-to-head match-up with Mr Trump now, Mr Biden is ahead by 18 points – a little more than half his margin at the last election.
Although there is no question that solid-blue California will still support Mr Biden, the state’s polling data reveals a collapse in support among some groups required to get him over the line in other more equivocal states.
Many Latinos, who make up 40 per cent of Californian voters, have turned towards Mr Trump in a Right-ward shift following his concerted effort to appeal to the demographic nationwide.
Three-quarters of Latino voters felt positively about Mr Biden when he took office. That figure now stands at 43 per cent.
Also, young liberals in California say that they will stay away from the polls in protest against Mr Biden’s support for Israel, or vote for third-party candidate Cornel West, who is pro-palestine.
The latest polls show 57 per cent of under-30s in the state have an unfavourable view of Mr Biden, up from 25 per cent on inauguration day.
Pollsters say results in California are easy to predict: Mr Trump will win the primary on Tuesday, but Mr Biden will win the state in November.
But behind those headlines is an ironic phenomenon, that the US’S liberal fortress could become the site of Mr Trump’s greatest victories.
A win today will make him unbeatable in the Republican race, while in the general election he stands to embarrass Mr Biden with the closest California result in 20 years.