The clues that could point to a springtime general election

DOES Jonathan Ashworth know something that Tory MPS don’t? Yesterday, Labour’s shadow paymaster general bet Kay Burley, the Sky News presenter, £10 that the general election will be in May.

He said the Conservatives were “planning for that” – and he is not alone in believing that Rishi Sunak has been bluffing with his references to an autumn election.

Jeremy Hunt’s Budget speech today might well ramp up speculation of an early election still further if he drops any hints about changing fiscal rules in a future manifesto.

Those who read the tea leaves in Westminster have already seen clues this week that a May election might be on the cards.

On Monday, it emerged that March 13 has been set aside for the legislation that would be needed for a National Insurance cut.

Parliamentary timetablers have been told that the entire Bill must be passed in one day, suggesting that someone is in a hurry.

Add to this the fact that the Government wants to pass its landmark Rwanda Bill this month, possibly in the week starting March 18.

If it got the Rwanda Bill through Parliament by the end of that week, there would still be time – just – to announce a general election to be held on May 2, the same day as the local elections, dissolve Parliament and still have a clear 25 working days for the election campaign.

Plans for a May election would certainly help to explain why the Treasury has been so relaxed about giving away what will surely be the biggest announcement in today’s Budget, a 2p cut to National Insurance.

In the run-up to most budgets, the Treasury plays a cat and mouse game with news organisations, with journalists desperately trying to find out what the Chancellor is planning while the Treasury leaks a few smaller policies in order to control the news agenda.

One of the unwritten rules is that the Treasury tends not to pre-announce or confirm its biggest moves in order to maintain an element of anticipation, and keeps back at least one “rabbit in the hat” to grab public attention on the day itself.

In confirming that the Chancellor will announce the 2p National Insurance cut today, the Treasury seems to have surrendered any element of surprise and in doing so dampened Mr Hunt’s squib.

It is, of course, possible that he will still surprise us all with an unexpected tax cut elsewhere – to stamp duty or inheritance tax, perhaps – which would explain the Treasury’s laid-back attitude to confirming the NI cut a day early (though there appears to be little to no room in Treasury coffers for any other major cuts).

But what if the rabbit in the hat today is a nod and a wink of an early election?

Part of the reason Mr Hunt is so constrained when it comes to taxcutting is that he will need to satisfy the Office for Budget Responsibility that he can balance the books. Just ask Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng what

happens if you try to leave the OBR out of the equation.

Tory MPS are complaining that the unelected OBR, rather than the Chancellor, now writes the Budget. Any suggestion from Mr Hunt that the Tories might pledge to reform or replace the OBR in a future manifesto would only increase speculation of an election around the corner.

Cooler heads will make the point that an early March Budget, rather than pointing to an early election, leaves the option of fitting in a mini-budget later in the year before an autumn election.

There are also huge logistical problems in trying to call an election for May. For example, the selection process for Conservative candidates in some seats has not even been advertised yet, let alone begun, meaning that it would have to be rushed through.

Is it possible that could happen? Mr Ashworth clearly thinks so.

‘One of the unwritten rules is that the Treasury keeps a “rabbit in the hat” to grab attention on the day’