An early election would be potentially suicidal for the Conservatives after this damp squib

WITH election day drawing ever nearer, the Conservatives have played their latest card in their attempt to improve their dire position in the polls. As widely anticipated, the Chancellor announced a doubling of the cut in National Insurance first unveiled in last year’s Autumn Statement and which will be fully reflected in pay packets from April.

Despite the fact that the initial cut has not had any discernible impact on the Conservatives’ standing in the polls, the party is hoping that doubling the dose will make it more effective – and according to some commentators at least perhaps pave the way for an early election at the beginning of May.

This second National Insurance cut might deliver the Conservatives some benefit. Maybe some voters will be convinced by it that the economy has begun to turn a corner. But even if that does happen it is unlikely to happen on the scale and with the speed that would be needed for the Prime Minister to call an election for May 2.

And even if the tax cuts appeal to some, they are unlikely on their own to convince many, especially given they will do nothing for those who have retired, on whom the Conservatives are heavily reliant at the ballot box. They are, in short, unlikely to reverse all of what is still a 20-point average Labour lead in the polls.

And then there is the timetable. For an election to be held on May 2, Parliament has to be dissolved by March 26. Given the need to tidy up legislative loose ends beforehand, that means Mr Sunak would have to fire the starting gun in 10 days’ time.

That is too short a period during which to come any realistic assessment of whether the Budget has indeed dramatically and permanently changed the political weather. It could also well mean having to jettison the Prime Minister’s Rwanda Bill along the way.

The local elections on May 2 are likely to be difficult for Mr Sunak – but calling a general election for that day still looks potentially suicidal.