Trump’s victory does not guarantee him keys to the White House
His grip on the Republican party may be unchallenged – but obstacles remain on the path back to power
MORE than three years after he was ousted from the White House, leaving behind a Republican Party as battered as the Capitol building his supporters had just ransacked, Donald Trump’s comeback bid is complete.
The former president, 77, claimed victory in 14 out of 15 states to vote in so-called Super Tuesday to once again become his party’s presumptive presidential nominee.
His string of wins over Nikki Haley, 52, on Tuesday night prompted his final rival’s withdrawal.
It marks a stunning political revival for Mr Trump, who launched his third White House run from the same Mar-a-lago ballroom he celebrated in on Tuesday night, but to a very different reception.
Back in November 2022, when he announced his comeback campaign, it was to a half-filled ballroom. His aides struggled to get Republican officials to attend the big launch.
On Tuesday night, it was standing room only at his private club and residence on Palm Beach, Florida.
But while his crushing victories against his GOP rivals have cleared his path to November’s general election, replicating that success among the wider electorate won’t be so simple.
For one, although enthusiasm for Mr Trump among the core GOP base is indisputable, he has underperformed the polls in several primary contests.
Prof Justin Wolfers, from the University of Michigan, said his analysis found a “striking pattern”. Mr Trump fared worse than predicted in 13 of the 15 states voting Tuesday. In states like Massachusetts, Maine and Utah, his margin of victory was 10 to 15 per cent below the polling forecasts.
He underperformed the polls by 20 per cent or more in Minnesota and Virginia, Prof Wolfers said.
He even lost Vermont, where one late poll had him leading Ms Haley 61 to 31 per cent.
As Ms Haley put it yesterday, if he is to win in November, Mr Trump will need to “earn ” back those voters.
“What she has done is to show that a sizeable chunk of Republicans remain anti-trump, even after 2016 and then the presidency and then 2020,” said Prof Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s centre for politics.
“The question is, will they gravitate back to Trump? They did in 2016, amazingly, and in 2020, even though he lost, he still got the lion’s share – 94 per cent – of all Republican votes,” he said.
As well as winning back sceptical Republicans, Mr Trump will also need to make significant inroads with independent voters, which some 2020 exit polls suggested he lost to Mr Biden by a 13-point margin. And yet Whit Ayres, a highly respected Republican pollster, says Mr Trump has “underperformed” among the independents in the Republican primaries so far this year.
Trump campaign aides have said their election planning has now begun “in earnest”, and they realise they must do more to draw in moderates and independents.
They are also likely to attempt to increase their gains among more blue-collar, minority communities, particularly Hispanic voters.
Some insiders suggest they have acknowledged their chances of regaining substantial support among college-educated women are “gone”. However, if the polls have confirmed anything in recent years, it is that they have limitations.
This year, in particular, sampling the mood of the public is a more inexact science than ever. Mr Trump faces a criminal trial later this month; at 81, Mr Biden faces persistent doubts over his fitness for the job; numerous third party candidates are running.
But one thing is clear: a criminal conviction for Mr Trump before November could seriously imperil his White House return.
Exit polls from Super Tuesday found a significant minority of Republicans in multiple states believed a guilty verdict would render Mr Trump unfit for America’s highest office.
Meanwhile, a recent poll from Bloomberg and Morning Consult found that 53 per cent of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for the Republican candidate if he were found guilty of a criminal offence.
Despite his weaknesses, Mr Trump’s allies and critics alike agree that he has one major factor in his favour: a hugely unpopular sitting president.
Mr Ayres, a veteran of presidential campaigns, believes Mr Biden “is the weakest incumbent president since Jimmy Carter”.
He said: “He is behind in all of the swing states. Three quarters of Americans think the country’s going the wrong direction. A majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job performance.”
Ultimately, most Americans may feel they are making a decision between two unappealing choices.