Nigel Farage’s return would be an extinction-level event for the Tories

The Conservative Party is finished. The only question is whether it loses badly or is utterly obliterated

The Conservative Party is toast. There is no path to a Tory victory. Rishi Sunak cuts an increasingly tragic and isolated figure. I write this with great sadness, but the Prime Minister has never looked so powerless, so unable to command the country’s attention. His podium speech on extremism was ignored by Scotland Yard. His Budget has made zero impact. There is little prospect of No10 seizing the narrative. Tory MPS are either in open panic or are trying to coast through their last few months in office, though not in power. The Government has alienated every segment of the Conservative base without gaining any new voters. Its only hope is a schism on the Left that limits Labour’s gains.

One experienced political figure has put money on a sub-100 Tory seat outcome. The best case scenario – a 1997-style shellacking with 165 Conservative seats, and a 179-seat Labour majority – looks optimistic. The mid-range scenario – a 1906-Liberal landslide-style thumping, with the Tories losing more than half their seats – feels equally bullish. The worst case scenario – a Canada 1993 replay, where the ruling Canadian Tories lost all but two of their seats – may be too pessimistic and would involve the

Lib Dems becoming the Opposition, but it would be foolish to rule it out. The best polls for the Tories put them on 24-27 per cent; the worst on 18-20 per cent, less than John Major’s 30.7 per cent.

The Red Wall is furious about Brexit betrayal, immigration, defence, the cost of net zero, wokery and a lack of levelling-up; the Blue Wall is appalled by high tax, red tape, low-traffic neighbourhoods, rampant crime, the sub-postmasters scandal and the lack of a pro-growth strategy; the young are apoplectic about house prices; and the country is united in disgust at our broken infrastructure, pothole-strewn roads, calamitous NHS and gradual impoverishment. The Tory heartlands loathe the Islamist-inspired extremist chants evident on the demos that hijack central London weekly, and members hate David Cameron’s cowardly decision to turn against Israel.

The Tories have failed in three critical ways. First, they squandered the anti-establishment protest vote behind Brexit, Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory and which is fuelling every single Rightwing or populist party across the West. The great realignment – whereby culturally conservative, patriotic voters shifted Right-wards, and the ultraurban woke Left-wards – has been wasted. The future of the centre-right globally is to harness the rage of the working and middle classes, to act as competent revolutionaries, to make people’s lives better via reforms, to root out wokery, regain control of the borders and boost growth. Instead, the Tories have acted as incompetent, purveyors of the status quo. Angry voters are thus voting for Right-wing parties everywhere bar Britain.

Second, they lost the under-40s: again – this is a British aberration. Donald Trump is leading 51-45 among under-30s, a Fox News poll reveals.

Pierre Poilievre, the Canadian Conservative, leads 36-21 among under-30s, and 41-21 among the 30-44s, an Abacus poll shows, partly because of a strong offering on house building and a backlash against Justin Trudeau’s authoritarianism. Populist and Rightwing parties in Europe are also doing well among the young.

Third, the Tories are catastrophically behind among ethnic minorities. Their erstwhile progress with British Hindus, British Chinese and Christian British Africans has been squandered through ineptitude and the party’s insufficiently robust conservatism. Disgusting racist reported comments by a donor aren’t helping.

By contrast, the US elections may herald a historic shift of ethnic minorities towards the Republicans, as anti-woke, pro-aspiration, pro-family voters are repelled by Joe Biden’s critical race theory and high taxes. A New York Times poll suggests Democrats have lost most Hispanics, and are only ahead 56-44 among all non-white voters.

With the Tories lacking agency, it will be incumbent upon Nigel Farage to once again determine their future. Does he give up his media career – he is a brilliant broadcaster for GB News – and cash in his I’m a Celebrity-enhanced reputation to re-enter the nasty, ungrateful world of politics? If he jumps in nearer to the vote, and launches a lightning air war, making a series of striking promises, by how much would his Reform UK jump in the polls? Or does he stand aside, allowing the Tories to be crushed but not obliterated, with the risk that they are subsequently captured by their anti-brexit Left-wing?

Farage’s calculation will take account of four factors. He would want not merely to bruise the Tories but inflict upon them their greatest ever humiliation. His revenge would need to be total: he would want to overtake them in vote share. This isn’t as fanciful as it seems: Yougov puts the Tories at 20 per cent and Reform on 14. The caveat is that most other pollsters suggest a wider gap, and Reform may be underperforming in actual votes.

The second requirement would be for him to win a seat for himself and hopefully others: hard, but doable.

The third would be to reunite the Right of British politics, either by absorbing any Right-wing Tory survivors into Reform post-election, or by merging into (and possibly leading) a rump Tory party purged of its Lefties.

The fourth, most tentative goal would be to bolster the case for PR or an AV transferable vote system.

A Farage re-entry would guarantee a Tory implosion, multiple defections to Reform, and an apocalyptic loss of scores more Tory seats. But whether or not Farage presses the button, there is a gaping market gap on the Right, as well as more broadly for a party aligned with the electorate’s wishes. If Reform isn’t the answer, another group will be.

Labour’s triumph will be short-lived. It, too, is an unstable coalition between centre-left and far-left. It, too, will fail to mend Britain. Political entrepreneurs will soon begin to circle: by 2025-26, it is easy to conceive of a Macron-style Left-right start-up party boasting 20 policies, all with 75 per cent support in the polls, and fielding a list of candidates (such as nurses and small business leaders) with no prior political experience.

Such a grouping – which would promise to spend yet more on the NHS, quit the ECHR, build prisons, slash immigration to near zero – would upend politics. One way or the other, the old order is finished, as Rishi Sunak is about to discover.

There is a gaping market gap on the Right. If Reform isn’t the answer, another group will be