Reform’s sizeable share of the vote will ‘trouble Conservatives’
Rwanda Bill is being debated in the House of Lords today. The Government hopes it could become law this week, but peers are threatening to push through amendments that would delay the start of deportation flights.
Overall, 72 per cent of respondents think that the Government is handling the issue of immigration badly, compared to 20 per cent who think it is being dealt with well. Just 34 per cent of Tory voters think the Rwanda deportation plan will succeed in reducing the number of migrants crossing the Channel. That is a fall from January, when 42 per cent thought the policy would succeed.
A lead of 18 percentage points for Labour, similar in size to other polls, is more bad news for Mr Sunak as he faces pressure from Tory backbenchers ahead of an election, expected to be held in the autumn. Poll leads often shrink during election campaigns, but even in Sir Tony Blair’s landslide 1997 victory Labour only won by 13 percentage points.
Tory election strategists remain nervous about the increasingly strong polling performance of Reform, which has seen its support roughly double across all pollsters since last summer.
The party’s positioning to the Right of the Conservatives has led to fears that disillusioned Tory voters are jumping ship, in part thanks to Reform’s calls for major tax cuts and tighter border policies. Last month, Reform celebrated its strongest by-election result in Wellingborough, Northants, finishing third and securing 13 per cent of the vote.
Labour won the by-election in the previously safe Conservative seat after overturning an 18,000 majority.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “After yet another bad week for the Prime Minister, the fact that this latest polling shows that things haven’t got any worse for the Conservative Party is probably the best he could have hoped for.
“Still, Savanta’s Labour leads have been fairly consistently in the high teens now for several weeks, and they all point to a significant Labour majority if replicated at a general election.
“The Reform UK vote share here is noteworthy, and the party will continue to trouble Conservative strategists. These latest figures represent Reform’s highest ever vote share in a Savanta poll and, for the first time, leapfrogging the Lib Dems into third.
“Reform UK remains something of an enigma to pollsters and commentators alike but, with a real set of local elections coming in May, many eyes will be on Richard Tice’s party to see if electoral evidence can back up their continued strong opinion polling performance.”
Mr Sunak must call an election before January 2025 with an autumn election widely expected.