Middle East tensions

In the aftermath of the October 7 attacks on Israel, there were fears of a wider Middle East war. As the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) went deeper into Gaza in pursuit of the Hamas terrorists who killed more than 1,200 men, women and children, it seemed as if Iran could be drawn in.

Tehran’s Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon fired hundreds of missiles into northern Israel, but failed to open a second front as the IDF had feared. Moreover, the Israelis did not launch a preventive war against Hezbollah, despite the threat it posed. Heavy US pressure has stayed the hand of the IDF, with Washington anxious to avoid a regional conflagration. But analysts sense that Israel will soon have to deal with a foe far better armed and more capable than Hamas.

The attack on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, killing two commanders of the al-quds force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC), can be seen in this wider context. While the Israelis have carried out extrajudicial assassinations before, a strike on a diplomatic mission is unusual.

The two generals were key links to Hezbollah and posed a potential threat to Israeli security. The al-quds force is behind recent militia attacks on US positions in Iraq and has armed the Houthi rebels in Yemen, disrupting shipping through the Suez Canal.

Meanwhile, the IDF launched an inquiry into an attack on a supplies convoy in Gaza which killed several aid workers, including three from Britain. Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, has demanded a full and transparent explanation of what happened. As tensions mount in the region, the Israelis need to provide one quickly.