Europe must step up to keep the peace

Lord Ismay, the first secretary-general of Nato, which came into being 75 years ago today, was characteristically forthright in setting out its principal ambition. It was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”. The post occupied by Ismay was not created until 1952 and he was a reluctant incumbent pressed into the role by Winston Churchill. But as the chill of the Cold War deepened, he became an ardent supporter of the need for such an organisation.

He saw that the Soviet Union was not just dangerous because it was communist, but because it was essentially a Russian construct, with a tendency to anti-democratic absolutism, both of the Left and Right. Historical memory, geography, and national character are constants in Russia and always transcend the politics of the day. As Ismay foresaw, Russia is no longer communist, but remains the biggest threat to peace in Europe.

Collectively, Europe – even without the US – is far more powerful than Russia, save in one crucial regard: the size of its nuclear arsenal. The invasion of Ukraine and the failure after two years to make any significant progress has exposed Russia’s weakness. Its aggression has persuaded Sweden, previously neutral, to join Nato, along with Finland. Far from undermining the alliance, Vladimir Putin has succeeded in expanding it.

In its 75 years, Nato has, by and large, kept the peace in Europe, apart from the inter-ethnic conflicts in the Balkans, and claimed victory over the Soviets when the Berlin Wall came down. But the Ukraine war is its biggest test since then: even without the alliance’s direct involvement, this is a proxy conflict between Nato and Russia.

The threat to Nato’s future comes from within, and especially if Donald Trump is re-elected US president later this year. His ambivalence towards the alliance derives partly from a resentment that America contributes so much more to Europe’s defence than the continent itself does, as well as from a strategic pivot towards the threat from China. Americans are justifiably annoyed that they are often attacked by political elites in Europe despite their largesse.

The US also has constants of historical memory and geography that make Mr Trump’s “America First” narrative so powerful. The country's help cannot always be taken for granted, which is why one of Ismay’s aims was to “keep America in”. That will require the European members of Nato to step up and stump up.