Iran has thrown down the gauntlet – what happens next depends on the West

IRAN’S direct attack on Israel late on Saturday night is a high-stakes gamble of the worst possible kind.

The assault itself was well telegraphed in advance and – despite the large numbers of projectiles involved – was self-contained. This was not, it would seem, a nation hurling itself into all-out war just yet.

If Tehran had really wanted to inflict massive damage on its arch enemy, there would have been no warning and

Hezbollah, its proxy and ace card in the region, would have been ordered to launch a blitzkrieg of its own from Lebanon. The terrorist group, which makes Hamas look like a minnow, is thought to have more than 100,000 missiles pointed at Israel.

So it may well be that Iran is sending a message: that it has had enough and will no longer allow esteemed members of its Revolutionary Guard to be assassinated without direct reprisal.

The scale of the assault – involving more than 300 drones and missiles – also makes clear to Israel that it is reliant on US and other Western support for protection. Its Iron Dome air defence system is good but is still more than capable of being overwhelmed, it seems.

Iran’s attack also throws down the gauntlet to the West: should it risk all-out war in the region or might it be better trying to rein in Israel?

But preventing an escalation and all-out war is not going to be easy.

Iran said yesterday that the attack was a legitimate act of self-defence under the UN charter and “the matter can be deemed concluded”.

Israel, on the other hand, characterised the Iranian action as a “major escalation” and was reported to have informed the US and other counties in the Middle East that it will have to respond.

There seems little doubt the West will try to prevent a counter attack but Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not a man who is easily constrained. Just like Iran’s leaders, his position at home is precarious and if he

fails to react he could be pushed out by the religious fanatics on which his coalition government depends.

The Americans certainly sound like they will push hard to stop the conflict escalating. Almost as soon as Israel’s skies fell silent on Sunday morning, Joe Biden indicated that he would be seeking a diplomatic solution.

The message was quickly echoed by London, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said to be “intent on deescalating the crisis”.

The same message was propagated by nations as diverse as Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, France and the United Arab Emirates. China called on the international community “to play a constructive role for the peace and stability of the region”.

These are not just words. Diplomats the world over can see the risk. If a fullscale war breaks out between Israel and Iran, it will almost certainly drag large parts of the rest of the world in with devastating consequences.

But can Mr Netanyahu and the Israel Defense Forces be restrained?

A senior Israeli intelligence source told The Telegraph the Iranian

‘If a fullscale war breaks out it will almost certainly drag large parts of the rest of the world in’

‘Tehran had hoped to show its might in the wake of Israel’s air strike on Iran’s consulate’

operation was a significant setback to Tehran which had hoped to show its might in the wake of Israel’s air strike on Iran’s consulate compound in Damascus earlier this month.

“They hadn’t predicted the coalition working against them, British, French, US, Jordanians intercepting the missiles, so it’s something incredible when you think about the status of Israel just a week ago when we were on the verge of being branded South Africa,” he said.

If there is hope, it resides in the fact that a very significant number of the projectiles fired by Iran were brought down by Western military assets and not the IDF. This should, say experts, give Biden and other Western leaders real clout over Israel.

“There will be a price tag,” the Israeli intelligence source told The Telegraph. “From now on the Americans will dictate everything in this region to us and, personally, I am afraid that the American administration is going to cease the war.”

Many will hope that he is right, albeit with very different sentiments about the ongoing conflict in Gaza.