Britain’s growth depends on migrants, says IMF

BRITAIN’S economic prospects have been downgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the second time in three months as it warned that the country had become dependent on foreign-born workers for growth.

The fund said that the UK is at risk of becoming trapped in a prolonged period of weak growth and stubborn inflation, as it warned of zero growth this year once increases in the population are taken into account. IMF analysis showed growth in Britain’s workforce had been powered entirely by immigrant labour since 2019.

It came as figures show the number of workforce dropouts claiming longterm sickness have surged to a record high. More than 2.8m people are too ill to work, the highest number since records were first collected by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

In total, 9.4m people aged between 16 and 64 are economically inactive – neither in work, nor looking for work – according to the ONS, with long-term sickness the most common reason. That is the highest number since 2012.

The IMF downgraded its forecasts for UK growth for the next two years, even as it hailed a brighter global outlook. Its World Economic Outlook showed the global economy is expected to expand at a faster than expected pace of 3.2pc this year. However, the British economy is expected to expand by just 0.5pc. This is lower than the IMF’S predictions both in January and last October, and follows growth of just 0.1pc last year.

It is also the second weakest growth rate in the G7 after Germany.

Average regular earnings in the three months to February rose by 6pc on the year, figures showed. The ONS said the number of people in work in the three months to February fell below 33m for the first time since October 2022. Unemployment rose above 1.4m. It takes the unemployment rate to 4.2pc, up from below 4pc three months earlier.