A dangerous new phase for Ukraine
Russia’s renewed offensive in Ukraine represents a moment of great peril for the beleaguered nation. With the world’s diplomatic and political preoccupation more directed at Israel’s incursion in Gaza, Moscow has taken the opportunity to open a major front in a strategically important salient around Kharkiv.
This is designed to stretch Ukraine’s undermanned and outgunned forces which have been waiting for help from the West while Russia spent the winter rearming. The assault on villages in the north-east of Ukraine was the most significant in the area since the initial invasion was repelled. The Russian military unleashed a barrage of artillery and airstrikes in the early hours of Friday morning and fierce fighting raged into the weekend along a 45-mile strip of the frontier.
Ukraine has deployed reserves to reinforce their positions and stop Russia obtaining a foothold from which its forces can strike more easily into the rest of Donbas, but this leaves other parts of the front line vulnerable.
The offensive marks a significant new phase in the conflict. Despite promises to continue supporting Ukraine “whatever it takes”, Western governments have been dilatory in their assistance. The Americans, the biggest supplier, held up an agreement to increase spending for weeks while the Europeans failed to step into the breach this caused.
Volodymyr Zelensky had been warning for some time that his country was facing a perilous moment and this might be it. Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, said the situation in north-east Ukraine was “extremely dangerous”, a point likely to be reinforced by Rishi Sunak in a major speech today on the worsening international situation.
Some analysts doubt Russia yet has the capacity for a full-scale assault and there is no sign of entire brigades being mobilised. Nonetheless, the Russians are clearly intent on striking before the promised extra military hardware arrives. The new attacks follow the installation of Vladimir Putin for a fifth term as president, belying all predictions that his invasion would lead to his removal from power.
Meanwhile, Nato troops were in Estonia taking part in Exercise Steadfast Defender, the bloc’s biggest military exercise since the Cold War. The Baltic state, with a large Russian speaking population, fears it is next in the firing line. Should Ukraine fall, it may well be.