Putin’s choice of defence chief shows he is gearing up to take on Nato
Change of tack from general to economist proves president’s plan to enter conflict with West ‘Putin believes that quantity over quality will triumph in Ukraine and will challenge Nato more widely’
AT FIRST glance, Andrei Belousov does not appear to fit the mould of a Russian defence minister.
Known for his spreadsheet wizardry and grasp of Keynesian economics, he is more at home with data than tanks.
But Vladimir Putin has chosen Belousov, described as the Kremlin’s most gifted and most illiberal economist, and given him a mission – to win in Ukraine and prepare Russia for a long-term conflict against Nato.
These are projects Putin regards as central to his legacy as Russia’s leader and he wanted a bureaucrat, not a military man, for the job.
Sergei Shoigu had been criticised for his inability to overcome bureaucratic inertia undermining the war effort.
Belousov, a 65-year-old Putin loyalist, is known for his sharp analytical mind and head for figures.
Putin has forced Russia’s economy and society on to a war footing. Appointing an economist as defence minister highlights this mental shift.
With Putin feeling confident about his army’s performance on the battlefield in Ukraine, he has been able to make changes to his top team.
Belousov replaces Shoigu as defence minister. Shoigu was also a civilian, but he took on the rank of general after his appointment in 2012.
Expect Belousov to take a very different, numbers-driven approach to Shoigu. Recently, Belousov has taken charge of drone projects, pushing through plans for more key weapons and train more operators. He also reportedly has a good personal relationship with Putin.
Shoigu has been shunted sideways to become the secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, pushing out Nikolai Patrushev, 72, the hawk who advises more conflict with Nato.
And there is the elephant in the room: the sullen Gen Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian military. He survived the reshuffle, despite the criticism aimed at him on Russia’s performance in Ukraine. Just like Shoigu, he must be wondering how long he has left in the job.
Belousov has glided silently to the top. From 2012, he was a minister for economic development, then an economics adviser to Putin and then a deputy prime minister.
Before joining the Kremlin’s team, Belousov worked in Russia’s trade ministry as an analyst and then in the prime minister’s office as a director of finances. This CV may sound boring, but this is just the sort of experience that Putin seeks. The war in Ukraine has shifted to a war of attrition that the Russian president feels he can win.
He has signed weapons supply deals with North Korea and Iran, and converted civilian industry to arms manufacturing, and also pushed the mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of men and convicts.
This has given Russia a material advantage in Ukraine and allowed it to soak up a casualty rate of nearly 1,000 men per day.
In other words, Putin believes that quantity over quality will triumph in Ukraine and, importantly, will challenge Nato more widely – a conflict for which he has prepared his armies more intensely since his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Belousov is Putin’s numbers man and the grey-suited bureaucrat is now leading Russia’s preparations for conflict with Nato.