Forecasting as the crystal ball clouds over

With uncertainty rife and political vacillation the only thing you can count on, it’s hardly surprising there’s market uncertainty, says Rupert Bates

This must be a tough time to be a forecaster, commentator or compiler of indices. in an uncertain world, where would means wouldn’t and Brexit doesn’t mean Brexit, analysing any market or asset class comes with such a large asterisk it’s now called an Obelix.

Prime Minister Theresa May is doing a reasonable impression of the big Gaul with the Brexit monolith on her back, tottering from side to side, not sure whether or where to put it down.

And then there’s Donald Trump, the leader of the free world making Mrs Malaprop sound like a professor of English Literature. The President was truly born with a silver spoonerism in his mouth.

i met Trump once many years ago. it was in London for a property story and, keen to find a UK angle, i quizzed him about his ancestry. “My mother was serious scotch,” he trumpeted. Affording him the respect befitting a speculative real-estate tycoon rather than a future president of the United states, i replied: “Glenmorangie or Laguvulin?” The cheap gag went over his head – quite an achievement given his hair. Perhaps it was because Trump is teetotal, which explains a lot. seeing Trump’s minder reach for his inside jacket pocket, i beat a retreat to the devils on horseback platter.

sorry, a digression. Or is it? With so much uncertainty brought about by the ineptitude, power-broking and vacillating of politicians, both at home and abroad, it is difficult to know what to say. Maybe we just put our fingers in our ears, sing The Greatest Showman, get on with what we know and the macroeconomic debate can go hang, no matter its relevance to future agricultural policy.

strutt & Parker says the farmland market in England is getting undeniably tougher, despite average values rising over the first half of this year. The key, says Michael Fiddes of strutt & Parker, is to look at what isn’t selling. “Our figures show that over a third of the farms marketed in 2017 either remain available or have been withdrawn. The market remains incredibly polarised with location and farm type, rather than quality, remaining the key drivers of the price achieved,” says Fiddes.

“Land is still achieving excellent prices in areas where there are tight supplies and where buyers are funding a purchase with money from outside of farming. however, in areas where farmer buyers dominate, prices can be lower.”

The price paid for arable land in England over the past six months ranges from £6,800 to £15,000 an acre, while the proportion of farms being bought by buyers using funds made outside of farming is rising. such investors love long-term capital growth but what they crave more than anything is market certainty. Good luck with that.