Villa for the play-offs? Not with that defence
STRIKERS win games. Defenders win titles. Which is why I don’t think Aston Villa will even make the play-offs this year. Yes, they’ve got great individuals. Keeping Jack Grealish in the summer was massive, and the only thing that stopped the club disappearing up the swanny. But as a team – and particularly as a defensive unit – they are a shadow of the side that reached last year’s play-off final.
Central defence is the most important area on the pitch. It’s your foundation. Get that right and you’ve got a great chance of success.
You look at Brighton under Chris Hughton, with Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy. Cardiff last season with Sol Bamba and Sean Morrison.
Success
It says everything that when a team wins the title, one or both of their centre-backs will generally make the team of the season. Because even in a promotion year, there are far more games where you have to dig in deep than run riot.
Last year, Villa could do that. The back four of Ahmed Elmohamady, John Terry, James Chester and Alan Hutton practically picked itself. So did Sam Johnstone in goal.
Yet of those five players, just two – Hutton and Chester – started Villa’s last game in defence, a humiliating 4-1 defeat to Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. A third, Elmohamady, was in midfield.
Losing Terry was obviously a big blow, albeit one they knew was coming. We all know John is a world-class centre-half, but my respect for him went up a level last season.
He’s played his whole life in the Premier League, alongside some of the best players on the planet. Yet he dropped down a division and was exactly the same player.
I thought him and Chester were arguably the best pairing in the division. I saw Villa win away at Preston and those two were absolutely outstanding.
Now? Villa have just two centre-backs in the entire squad and are playing Mile Jedinak, a midfielder, in central defence.
Sorry, but that is not sustainable. I’m not saying Jedinak can’t fill in. Anybody can do a job for the odd game. But for a whole season? No.
It happened to me when I played out of position at rightback at Brighton. I did well in some games, but I struggled in a lot more.
Over the course of 25 matches, you’ll come up against players good enough to exploit your weaknesses. And that’s no fault of your own – it’s just not what you’ve been trained to do.
It’s a strange situation. Steve Bruce looked at his defence last year, identified the need to strengthen and did it brilliantly.
This year, it’s the polar opposite. Even accounting for the club’s financial issues in early summer, he’s had the entire loan window to sign reinforcements and nobody has arrived. He even let Tommy Elphick go out on loan, which seems odd under the circumstances.
Scarce
Why centre-halves are so scarce at Villa Park, only Steve knows. But they are paying for it. In six games, Villa have conceded 11 goals. Of the 24 Championship sides, only QPR have shipped more.
It’s such a big ask now. After Wolves, Villa had the best team in the division last season. Now they don’t – and that is a bottom-half back four.
They need reinforcements, but options are limited. You’re looking at free agents, veterans like James Collins and Robert Huth who haven’t had a pre-season and won’t be fit.
They could spend big in January – like they did two years ago – but by then it could already be too late.
Middlesbrough will go again. Leeds will go again. West Brom will go again.
Villa, under new ownership, may not even have the financial power to compete.
It promises to be a very tough season – and another that will end in failure to win promotion.