TONY: LET’S UP IT AGAIN NOW
Manager sets his sights high
BLACKBURN boss Tony Mowbray says his in-form side are now bona fide contenders for promotion.
Defeat to Leeds on October 26 dropped Rovers to 17th in the Championship, just five points above the drop zone and two clear of Wigan Athletic.
Yet when the Lancashire rivals meet at Ewood Park today, they will be separated by 14 places and 16 points.
Mowbray’s men have won five of their last six matches, with notable scalps including Sheffield Wednesday, Brentford and Bristol City.
Nobody in the division has taken more points over that period and, at lunchtime on Saturday, Rovers lay just three points behind third-placed Preston.
Much can still go wrong, of course. This time last year, Blackburn were about to embark on a four-match winning run that propelled them to within three points of the top six.
“We’re up there on merit and anything can happen in this league,” said Mowbray after a 3-0 win at Hull in January. “We’ve got a chance.”
Blackburn would win just one of their next 11 games and were rescued from a nervy finish only by the return of several injured players.
Mowbray knows his squad is susceptible to such vagaries of course, but insists they can last the pace this time.
“We know that we’re not extra special in this league but our work ethic, our drive and our determination helps us win tight games,” said the former Middlesbrough, Celtic and West Brom manager.
“We should be looking forward with anticipation and expectation. We’ve given ourselves a real opportunity over the last month or so by winning matches.
“We should be looking up now, looking at those top six spots. Let’s keep going and keep our feet on the floor, because it’s that hard work that’s allowed us to win football matches. That must be continued.”
Victory today, against a Wigan side who haven’t won an away game all season or tasted victory of any variety since October 20, would only strengthen Mowbray’s conviction.
Rovers, though, are up against it. According to Expected Goals, Mowbray’s side should be sitting in 15th spot.
With an actual and xGA of 1.3 goals conceded per match, the defence is performing as expected.
The difference is a forward line that is scoring at a rate of 1.4 goals per game versus an xG of 1.2. In other words, Blackburn’s strikers are making the most of difficult chances.
That is certainly true of Bradley Dack, Rovers’ inspirational No.10 who will return to the side today after serving a one-match suspension.
The 25-year-old, regularly linked with big-money moves, has scored nine league goals this season against an xG of 6.69.
Roving wide man Adam Armstrong has proved similarly proficient, scoring five times to exceed an xG of 3.88.
To lose either – to sale or injury – would likely be terminal for a side that create few chances and have so far registered fewer shots per game than every side except Charlton, Huddersfield and Luton.
For now, though, Rovers can dare to dream. “It’s a very positive camp after the recent results that we’ve picked up,” said Tosin Adarabioyo, the central defender on loan from West Brom.
“We’re a lot closer to where we want to be, everyone is in a much better mood and we’re more positive that we can achieve what we want to achieve.”