Chris Dunlavy analyses new Bristol City striker Nahki Wells
IT WASN’T so long ago that Chelsea star Tammy Abraham plundered 23 goals in a glittering season on loan at Ashton Gate.
So when Bristol City boss Lee Johnson says Nahki Wells is the deadliest marksman he has ever worked with, it is high praise indeed.
“I have had some really good strikers here during my time in charge,” said Johnson, below. “But in terms of cold, calculating finishing he is the best.”
Wells, who scored 13 times on loan at QPR in the first half of the season, was a man in demand this January. That is why Bristol City were forced to pay Burnley £5m for a player who turns 30 in June.
Closer analysis, however, reveals exactly why Johnson and the Robins’ recruitment team felt the outlay stacked up.
Firstly, he has been there and done it, winning promotion with David Wagner’s Huddersfield in the 2016-17 season.
Consistency is another factor. Only once in his last five Championship seasons has the Bermudan failed to hit double figures.
Overall, Wells’ second tier record stands at 66 goals (plus 22 assists) in 204 games, a ratio of 0.33 goals per game. For comparison, Sheffield
United striker and Championship specialist Billy Sharp has a career ratio of 0.35.
Like Sharp,
Wells was long viewed as a reliable, rather than prolific, performer.
A runner of channels. A grafter. A collector of second balls.
“Nahki is a player who works very hard,” said David Wagner, his manager at
Huddersfield. “He is a good striker, but he is also our first defender.”
Wells remains an accomplished all-rounder, but he has been far more predatory.
After 33 games this term, only Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham), Ollie Watkins (Brentford), Jarrod Bowen (Hull, now West Ham) and Lewis Grabban (Nottingham Forest) had surpassed his total. None, though, has matched Wells for efficiency. His 14 goals (one for City) had come from just 45 shots on goal - fewer than any other player with a double-figure tally. Of those, 31 per cent have been converted.
Clinical
Mitrovic, the division’s leading scorer, had found the net with 26 per cent of his shots, Watkins with 30 per cent and Grabban with 29 per cent. That clinical edge is also reflected in expected goals, where Wells has outperformed his xG of 9.82 by an incredible 4.18.
Overperformance - scoring more often than the volume and difficulty of a player’s chances would merit - is not unusual, yet no striker has done so to the same degree.
Mitrovic, for example, has scored 1.48 goals more than expected; Watkins 1.57.
At the other end of the scale, Leeds’ Patrick Bamford has netted 12 goals against an xG of 20.19, an underperformance of 8.19.
Little wonder, then, that many pundits were baffled by the Whites’ failure to pursue Wells in the January window.
Last weekend’s fixture between Leeds and Bristol City might have offered an opportunity to compare the two strikers, but so poor was the supply line to Wells that he barely featured.
Forging that path will be key to City’s hopes. QPR - like Huddersfield under Wagner - favour a patient, possession-based style that suited Wells’ strengths. He is a player who likes it on the deck.
The Robins are more direct and counter-attacking, but in Andy Weimann possess a playmaker who could dovetail with Wells much as Ebere Eze did at Loftus Road.
If Johnson can utilise his big signing effectively, Bristol City have a player who - on current form - is indeed the most ruthless finisher in the Championship.