Poll: Big boost for Labour if the party had another leader
But new survey shows Smith would fare no better
THE scale of the challenge facing Labour is revealed in a new poll which shows that the party would gain an eight point boost without Jeremy Corbyn as leader.
The UK-wide BMG survey for The Herald comes as Mr Corbyn sets out plans today, in his first major speech to the party conference in Liverpool since being re-elected on Saturday, for a new fund to funnel extra cash to areas of high migration.
But sources indicated that he was relaxed about the numbers of people coming into the country, adding: “It is not an objective to reduce the numbers, to reduce immigration”.
Mr Corbyn will also tell his delegates to prepare for a General Election next year, in spite of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.
There was some consolation for Mr Corbyn from the BMG poll, as it suggested that Owen Smith, his rival in the leadership election, would not be doing any better.
The result will be a blow to the moderate wing of the party who had hoped that the Pontypridd MP would transform their chances with voters.
Millions of Labour voters rejected the party’s call to stay in the EU in June’s referendum, in part because of concerns about immigration.
Under the fixed-term rules, PM Theresa May cannot call an election before 2020 without Labour’s help.
But a spokesman for Mr Corbyn last night said that Labour MPs would vote for another nationwide poll.
Labour are trailing Mrs May’s Conservatives in the polls.
BMG asked more than 2,000 people to consider whether they would vote Labour at a general election under four different scenarios.
These were: a Corbyn-led party; a Smith-led party; a party in which Mr Corbyn had stepped down but the leader was unknown; and for good measure, an Ed Balls-led party.
The results suggest that under Corbyn, Labour could attract up to 32 per cent of the vote: 11 per cent who said they would definitely vote for the party and 21 per cent who said that they would consider it. Mr Smith as leader would make hardly any difference, at 33 per cent . Under the Welsh MP, fewer voters (seven per cent) said that they would definitely vote for the party, while 26 per cent said that that they would consider it.
The data shows difference in the supporters of the two men, however.
Corbyn supporters tend to be younger than Mr Smith’s.
Mr Smith would have attracted more Liberal Democrats, and Mr Corbyn more Greens.
But an unknown fresh face was the option that appealed most.
Under that scenario, 10 per cent said they would definitely vote for the party, while 30 per cent would consider it – seven percentage points higher than a party led by Smith, and eight points higher than under Corbyn.
Finally, despite his recent high-profile appearance on Strictly Come Dancing, a Labour led by former shadow chancellor Ed Balls would be no less or no more electable than under Mr Corbyn or Mr Smith, with potentially 32 per per cent of the vote.
BMG’s Michael Turner said: “Now the Labour leadership campaign is over, the result of the latest BMG/Herald poll reveals that there would have been virtually no difference in the electability of the party at the next General Election under either contender.”