Numbers show blunt attack cost Ross his job
Lack of killer instinct from Leith side justifies change of manager
AFTER a little over two years at the helm at Hibernian, Jack Ross was yesterday sacked by the capital club with a 1-0 defeat away to Livingston on Wednesday evening proving to be the straw that broke the camel’s back for the Easter Road board.
The timing of the decision is both understandable and a little harsh. With Hibs – ostensibly a challenger for the Premiership’s best-of-the-rest crown behind the Old Firm – languishing in seventh as we approach the halfway stage of the campaign, it’s easy to see why the high heid yins decided to pull the trigger. On the other hand, though, Ross was preparing his team for the small matter of a Premier Sports Cup final in eight days’ time after humbling Rangers at Hampden barely a fortnight ago.
It’s no secret that football is fickle – ‘twas ever thus – and there is no debate surrounding the fact that Hibs’ form of late merited serious scrutiny. Collecting four points out of the last available 27 for a club of their stature is massive underperformance but as we all know, each team is subject to peaks and troughs of form as the season progresses. Perhaps Ross’s Hibs would have rode out the storm. We will never know.
An initial glance at some of Hibs’ under-the-hood statistics throughout Ross’s tenure, however, would suggest that the board have made the correct decision in arresting the current slide with a change in the dugout.
Ross’s predecessor Paul Heckingbottom was averaging a point per game prior to his dismissal in the 201920 season; that then rose to 1.39 for the remainder of the campaign that was cut short due to Covid before increasing to 1.66 the following term on Ross’s watch. This season, though, that figure has dropped to 1.19 – a decrease of 28 per cent, and mid-table form – and the reason for this is apparent when we look at the top end of the park.
Hibernian’s goal-scoring return under Ross’s watch has often been their Achilles’ heel – specifically, a lack of ruthlessness in front of goal and an inability to put their opponents to the sword when the opportunity presented itself. Hibs’ goal scoring in 2019-20 increased from 1.33 per game under Heckingbottom to 1.44 under Ross, yet the team’s expected
goals (xG) per 90 dropped from 1.36 to 1.27.
This tells us that after Ross took charge, Hibs became more clinical in front of goal. They were making fewer and lower quality opportunities yet they scored more goals. Their goalscoring rate was inherently unstable, and regression was a statistical probability. The following season, the trend was reversed: Hibs’ xG rose
significantly to 1.55 while their goals scored per 90 dropped to 1.26. Essentially, they were creating higher-quality chances but putting fewer of them away.
It’s an effect that has been exacerbated once again this term. Both Hibs’ goals and xG per 90 have dropped compared to last season, which shouldn’t be a surprise, yet there is still a yawning chasm between the chances Hibs are creating and the ones they’re taking. Their xG says they should be scoring 1.38 times per game; instead, they’re managing 1.13.
It’s this lack of a killer instinct that has proven to be Hibs’ undoing this season. Going by the xG, they are the third most creative team in the Premiership yet they’re currently seventh in the scoring charts. While one could reasonably expect the difference between a team’s xG and goals scored to revert to the mean eventually, history is not on Ross’s side. This profligacy in attack wasn’t a short-term blip; it was an observable trend for over a year. And it appears to have cost Ross his job.