The Tenner Bet

THE French have a phrase for something you’ve seen before, the Tenner Bet isn’t quite sure whether they have bons mots for writing the same things ad nauseum, however. Le Dixieme Bet, perhaps? It certainly feels as if I’m making the same points week after week and, frankly, it’s getting a little tedious. If it’s tedious for me, then God knows how it must feel for you guys.

As ever, there is mitigation. Consider this: as I listened to the status updates filter through from Boundary Park of the game involving The Team With The Worst Home Form In League Two versus The Team With The Best Away Form In League Two I was struck by the nature of how sports betting can often confound all logic. Let’s call those aforementioned teams

Oldham and Forest Green Rovers because it’s a bit shorter (certainly in Oldham’s case anyway). What happened in that benighted corner of Lancashire last weekend deserves revisiting because it encapsulates just how rotten my luck has been. There’s this: Oldham had won twice in eight home games and they had scored more than one goal just three times in that sequence. That’s not bad home form, of course. But then there’s Vegan FC who had barely dropped a point on their travels. Yes, there were a couple of draws but they had not conceded more than one goal in any of their 12 away league matches over the course of the entire campaign. How does it happen that a team with such form can be 4-1 up after 48 minutes against such poor opponents and still not win? How can it be that they score five goals and still lead by two with 65 minutes played and still end up drawing? It was the kind of result that the comic strip writers of Roy of the Rovers would have chucked away for being too far fetched.

There is but a simple answer: by dint of being on my bet slip, that’s how.

There is a small crumb of comfort in that these days a two-goal lead would be enough for some bookies to pay out a winner, or at least they would have done had Leyton Orient not turned in a stinker at home to Crawley Town, scoring a late own goal to compound their embarrassment (which incidentally is exactly how FGR chucked away the three points at Oldham). Sacre bleu! As French fans used to shout from the crowd any time Melchester Rovers scored a goal.

Anyway, there’s always next week – or this week as it happens to be.

The conditions are modest this time. I’m only picking home teams, preferably ones not riddled with Covid and with a better than average chance of winning (which you’d think would make sense but given what’s been said above even that no longer seems to be a guarantee of success).

The first name on the coupon is Blackburn, who confirmed their rising status as contenders for promotion from the Championship with an impressive win over Bournemouth last weekend and who take on a Birmingham side struggling for form, not least away from home, stuck in the bottom half.

Next up is Kilmarnock to see off travel sick Dunfermline, who have faded after a bright start under John Hughes. Forest Green, despite previous indiscretions, were going to be the next selection at home to Mansfield but the fast-vanishing fixture list has claimed that one so, instead, I’ve plumped for the other Forest, Nottingham of that ilk, to beat Hull.

Finally, any last-minute postponement notwithstanding, preference is for Aston Villa to continue their revival under Steven Gerrard by out-muscling Burnley.

Selections Blackburn (1/1), Kilmarnock (5/6), Nottingham Forest (19/20), Aston Villa (4/5) Accumulator pays 11.87/1. Season’s total -£110.00.*