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John Curtice on the SNP’s biggest problem: it all goes back to Sturgeon
IT’S NOT ALL POLITICS FOR THE FAMED PSEPHOLOGIST, THERE’S ALWAYS TIME FOR HIS ALLOTMENT
TWO minutes in to talking to Sir John Curtice and it’s absolute chaos. The broadcaster, psephologist and professor of politics is in the middle of explaining some detailed point about elections, arms sweeping through the air (he’s a gesticulator, like all good psephologists) when one of his long thin arms accidentally connects with the small round tray of coffee a waitress is trying to deliver to our table. Coffee everywhere.
It’s significant that, as the coffee pools round our feet and Sir John apologises, it doesn’t break his train of thought for a second. This is what he does: he fires out complex arguments, often in the face of interruptions, often on live TV, and it’s always coherent, and clear and, more importantly, supported by evidence and stats and free of hyperbole or gratuitous insults. As Sir John himself points out, this is not always what it’s like in public discourse these days. He’ll tell me about his views on that one later.
He’ll also tell me a bit about himself, even though it’s clear he’d much prefer to be talking about historical trends in general elections since 1830 or some such subject. The personal stuff includes his Christianity, his cakes, the difference between parsnips and carrots, his health concerns and issues with his weight, his parents, and his views on the issue that has arguably now brought down not one First Minister but two: trans and women’s rights.
But first: Humza Yousaf. When the First Minister resigns, I ask Sir John for his reaction and it’s pretty blunt. Mr Yousaf was, he says, a very poor politician and “bloody useless”. But the issue for the SNP now that their leader is going is whether they can actually find someone who’s any better.
“The new leader will have two jobs,” says Sir John, “One is to unite the party, but also to improve relations with the Greens so you’ve got to get Patrick Harvie and Fergus Ewing on board. That’s job number one, where you might want to go for John Sweeney.
“But the second job is to get politically on the front foot, talk to the electorate and
convince them you’re doing a good job and Sweeney, even among SNP voters, only about 50% of them regard him favourably and we know that he struggled with that aspect of the job last time. As for Kate Forbes, she will divide the party over cultural issues. So the problem is can they find someone who can do both jobs.”
Sir John also thinks people may already be exaggerating the possible effect of the First Minister’s resignation on public opinion: he points to a YouGov poll out this week which showed the SNP still ahead in voting intention for the Scottish
Parliament.
“The expectation that the SNP vote is going to collapse is maybe a bit exaggerated,” he says. “If anything, Labour are overplaying their hand in going for an early Scottish election. The crucial point is it’s a reset moment and we don’t yet know what’s going to happen as a result of it.”
What is clear though is Sir John’s general exasperation with the abilities of Mr Yousaf and others of his political generation.
“There are two things they lack: the ability to give a good speech and two, to articulate a vision of what they’re about. Sunak can’t do it, Starmer can’t do it, Davie can’t do it, and Yousaf can’t do it.” The three who were good, he says, were Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.
“Johnson was brilliant at it, it’s just that unfortunately compared to the other two, he wasn’t terribly good at running the country.”
Yousaf also suffered badly, says Sir John, in comparison to Nicola Sturgeon.
“Even after Sturgeon had been arrested,” he says, “when Sturgeon is doorstepped by a lot of journalists, she is in charge of that situation, she controls the interaction; when Yousaf’s in the same position, he’s not in charge.
“He doesn’t have her presence. Some of us are old enough to remember Nicola Sturgeon in her twenties. She had a certain kind of presence then but it wasn’t a commanding presence. It’s not natural, it’s learned behaviour.”
So I ask Sir John how we got here: from the peak of Sturgeon, through the arrests, through Yousaf, through the sagging poll ratings, to now, and in a sense he blames them both. Everyone’s talking about Yousaf’s resignation this week, but as far as he’s concerned the travails of the SNP are really about the resignation of his predecessor.
“It is only since Sturgeon has resigned, which is the biggest political mistake that’s been made in a very long time, that the SNP has gone down the swanny.”
But is he really suggesting things could be different now had Sturgeon stayed on? “Put it like this: we can argue about the police inquiry and all the rest of it, this is the difference: Sturgeon is a politician unlike any of the four previous characters I mentioned, Starmer, Sunak, Davie and Yousaf. And the timeline is this: the SNP start at 43 per cent at the beginning of that leadership contest and at the end, with Yousaf installed as leader, they’re down at 38.”
It’s obvious we’re now really getting into the stuff Sir John loves: numbers, trends, clues. On the day we meet, he’s preparing for the TV coverage of the English local elections, which means three solid days of rehearsals and an epic shift in the studio from early on the Thursday til late on the Saturday; 57 hours straight. How does he get through it, I ask. “Adrenalin,” he says. “I’m just following the story.”
BUT there’s a bit more to it than that, because there’s family history here. The gesticulating, the enthusiasm, the volubility, he says, is something he gets from his mother rather than his father, who was a quiet man. He also thinks some of the love of politics comes from early conversations he overheard between his mother and his uncle, who were councillors (Liberal and Labour supporters respectively). His first political memory, growing up in Cornwall, was the death of Hugh Gaitskell in 1963. He also remembers staying up late to watch the ‘64 vote (unknowingly, getting in some practice for his grown-up life).
Perhaps surprisingly, John didn’t do well in school in the early years but he does remember the Eureka moment of a teacher saying he could disagree with him if he wanted to and it stuck. Ever since, he says, he’s always been inclined to row against the consensus and the status quo. “The dominant narrative,” he says, “is always worthy of challenge.”
Famously, Sir John is also careful to publicly maintain his neutrality. Would he ever reveal how he votes? “Not to a journalist!” he says. “Or indeed to any private individual. My wife and I rarely discuss it.” And he says the reason is clear: politicians find it difficult to avoid playing the person rather than the ball and if they knew Sir John was Tory/Labour/SNP/ whatever, it would make his job considerably harder and a lot more unpleasant.
We talk a little more about his wife: Dr Lisa Curtice, who’s a curate in the Scottish Episcopal Church, and it’s an interesting mix of the personal and the political again. Sir John, on religion as well as politics, is a little reluctant to talk about his personal affiliations but he’s a Christian and a regular worshipper at St Mary’s Episcopal Cathedral on Gt Western Road. His wife is also now a curate in Renfrewshire which means covering a large area from Renfrew to Greenock. Sir John tells me he likes doing the husband-of-the-priest thing, making cakes for church events and so on, but in a way the Scottish Episcopal Church is also at the centre of his work as an interpreter of public attitudes.
The Scottish Episcopal Church was the first in the UK to allow gay marriages in churches mostly, says Sir John, because it’s relatively small, relatively liberal and relatively middle-class. He also says that, apart from opinions on the banks, attitudes to same-sex relationships is the biggest attitudinal change that Britain has ever
Even after Sturgeon had been arrested, when she is doorstepped by a lot of journalists, she is in charge of that situation, she controls the interaction; when Yousaf’s in the same position, he’s not in charge