Watchdog casts doubt on reliability of Scotland’s crime clear up figures

BY PAUL HUTCHEON

THE Scottish Government’s justice agenda has been dealt a blow after the reliability of the official crime clear-up rates was questioned by an independent scrutineer. The UK Statistics Authority, which assesses the data produced by central and devolved government, found that the figures did not meet the highest standards of “trustworthiness” or “quality”.

Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur commented: “This is not the first time the Scottish Government has been caught using questionable statistics to make political points.”

Justice Secretary Michael Matheson last week announced that recorded crime was at its lowest level in 42 years. The SNP administration also trumpeted a clear-up rate of 51.6 per cent – the highest level since 1976.

According to the data, 84.4 per cent of attempted murders and serious assaults were cleared up, as were 74.1 per cent of sexual crimes.

The figures came from Police Scotland and Nicola Sturgeon hailed the crime fall at First Minister’s Questions.

However, the UKSA has placed a question mark over the data.

It agreed to designate the Government’s recorded crime figures as “national statistics”, which means they “meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and value”.

But on the clear-up rates, the UKSA had more disappointing news.

“While we can confirm the designation of the police recorded crime statistics, at this stage we are unable to confirm that the ‘clear-up rates’ presented in Recorded Crime in Scotland can be designated as National Statistics,” it said.

The UKSA explained: “This is because of a lack of external assurance of these data.

“We therefore consider that the Scottish Government should seek independent assurance about the quality of the data.”

Although the record clear-up rate was mentioned in the Scottish Government press release, the UKSA health warning was not.

An audit by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary in Scotland Justice Secretary Michael Matheson last week announced that recorded crime was at its lowest level in 42 years (HMICS) will be carried out into the figures.

Scottish Conservative MSP Douglas Ross said: “The SNP has form for fiddling figures of this nature, after deciding that crimes and offences should be totted up differently, creating an impression of lower crime levels. Maybe the Scottish Government should spend less time bragging about statistics, and more time trying to sort out Police Scotland at a time when public confidence in it has never been so low.”

McArthur added: “Clear and accurate reporting is vital to ensuring resources are going into the right areas and the UKSA’s criticisms must be taken on board.”

Ed Humpherson, UKSA director-general for regulation, said: “We welcome the proactive approach taken by Scottish Government statisticians to investigate and better understand the recording of police recorded crime data. There is, however, still a need for independent assurance about the quality of the data underlying the clear-up rates.”

A Scottish Government spokesman said: “The UK Statistics Authority will consider the classification of clear-up rates once HMICS have carried out an independent audit of this information next year.

“While we have no reason to doubt the accuracy of crime clear-up rates, we would welcome this extra level of scrutiny, which will ensure Scotland’s crime statistics continue to meet the highest levels of public trust and value.”