THERESA’S TRIPLE TROUBLE
RESURGENT SINN FEIN, INDYREF2 AND BREXIT PILE PRESSURE ON PM
THERESA MAY was presented with another political bear trap last night – following Brexit and the threat of a second Scottish independence referendum – when Sinn Fein came within one seat of drawing level with the ruling Democratic Unionist Party in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections. The Prime Minister will now have to deal with three constitutional crises: resurgent republicanism across the Irish Sea, the push for a second independence referendum in Scotland, and the uncharted land of a post-Brexit Britain.
The Stormont result means that the DUP, which won 28 seats – one more than Sinn Fein – is unlikely to be able to muster the 30 votes necessary to block reforms over same-sex marriage and Ulster’s anti-abortion laws. But for May it also means that with the endorsement of Sinn Fein and the other nationalist party, the SDLP which took 12 seats, there is a strong and vociferous majority in the north of Ireland for remaining in the EU.
Following the result Sinn Féin declared the Unionist majority “demolished” in Northern Ireland. The party said it now had a “clear mandate” to take forward discussions about how best power sharing could be agreed.
While the DUP entered the election 10 seats ahead of Sinn Féin, the republicans finished just behind the DUP with 1,168 fewer first preference votes. The two parties now have three weeks to form a government. Northern Ireland’s power-sharing agreement decrees that this must be run by Irish nationalists and unionists together – and if a government isn’t formed in that timeframe another election will be called.
The election was called after the collapse of a coalition led by Arlene Foster’s DUP and Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness in January this year.
The results mean the DUP no longer has the seats it needs to veto progressive reforms, having slipped below the 30 seats required although notionally it could ally with rival the Ulster Unionist Party which won 10 seats. At a press conference yesterday, Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams said: “The notion of a perpetual Unionist majority has been demolished. We need to reflect on that but so do the leaders of Unionism, and everyone on this island, and this part of the island. We have been given a clear mandate. We intend to assert that mandate.”
Speaking outside the party’s west Belfast office, Adams said Sinn Féin was keen to ensure powersharing in the region is restored as soon as possible in negotiation with other leaders. But he again insisted that the party will not support DUP leader Foster as Northern Ireland’s First Minister until she has been cleared of any wrongdoing related to the renewable heat incentive (RHI) scandal, the failed energy scheme that is set to cost the public purse almost £500 million. He claimed that he would instead nominate Michelle O’Neill, the SF leader.
O’Neill said that formal discussions would start on Monday: “The task is not easy, but it is achievable if people come at it with the right attitude ... On Monday morning I will lead our team into the Assembly where we are ready to deal with all the issues.”
The SDLP fared better than expected and replaced the Ulster Unionist Party, which won just 10 seats, as the third largest party in the Assembly. The dramatic shake-up led Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt to announce his resignation. The Alliance Party took eight seats, and the Greens won two. But although Sinn Fein has put pressure on Foster to stand down, DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson insisted there is no question over her future as party leader despite the disappointing performance.
But Northern Ireland political commentator Jude Collins said the DUP is now “standing on thin ice”. He said: “The bogeyman Sinn Féin is now so close, they can feel hot breath on their collar. That should inject a note of courtesy into their dealings with the republican party. If you have a death-wish, of course, you won’t change a thing.”